Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the previous continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently. Sectors like energy storage, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the medium and long term, the main idea is to go long on dips [2][3]. - For the bond market in the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The market is in a situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, and is expected to maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]. - For most non - ferrous metals, factors such as supply tightening, macro - policy easing, and relatively stable demand support price increases, but different metals have different specific driving factors and price trends [8][9][10][11]. - For black building materials, the current steel demand is weak, but with the macro - environment turning loose, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust downward if the downstream situation weakens. For other varieties in the black building materials sector, different trends and influencing factors exist [31][33]. - For energy chemicals, different varieties have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some varieties are expected to maintain a volatile trend, while others have opportunities for short - term long positions or risks of decline [50][52][54]. - For agricultural products, the supply - demand relationship of different varieties is unbalanced. Some are in a situation of oversupply and prices are under pressure, while others are expected to be strong due to factors such as policy support and supply - demand expectations [73][74][79][80]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - Market Information: The CSRC held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year" capital market plan for listed companies and industry institutions. During the holiday, non - ferrous metal futures such as precious metals, copper, and aluminum closed higher. Global storage chip prices are rising, and the storage chip industry is expected to enter a "super cycle". China's nuclear fusion device BEST has made a key breakthrough [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: After the previous rise, high - level hot sectors have diverged, and the market volume has shrunk. Short - term index fluctuations have increased, but the medium - and long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bond - Market Information: On September 30, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. The cross - regional personnel flow during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays reached 2.36 billion person - times. The US September non - farm payrolls data was postponed due to the government "shutdown". The central bank conducted 2422 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 339 billion yuan [4]. - Strategy Viewpoint: In September, the manufacturing PMI showed a slight recovery but was still below the boom - bust line. The "anti - involution" policy led to a rise in the price level, but the subsequent social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and there are still expectations of monetary easing and the central bank restarting bond purchases. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the fourth quarter [5]. Precious Metals - Market Information: COMEX gold and silver prices fell. During the National Day, overseas risk events impacted the US dollar credit, and gold prices rose. The Fed officials had differences in the follow - up interest rate path, and the market expected further interest rate cuts [6]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Maintain a medium - term long - position thinking for precious metals. There is a short - term risk of price correction, and price dips are good opportunities to enter long positions [6]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: During the National Day holiday, overseas non - ferrous metal prices were generally strong. LME copper prices rose, and overseas exchange copper inventories changed differently. Chile's August copper production decreased, and domestic September electrolytic copper production also decreased [8]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Supply tightening and macro - policy easing support copper prices, and demand is not significantly weak. Copper prices are expected to remain strong [9]. Aluminum - Market Information: During the National Day holiday, the aluminum price rose. LME aluminum inventories decreased, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum production and operating capacity were relatively stable, with the proportion of molten aluminum increasing [10]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Macro - sentiment supports the aluminum price. With the increase in the domestic molten aluminum proportion and the seasonal recovery of consumption, the aluminum price is expected to rise [11]. Zinc - Market Information: Before the holiday, the Shanghai zinc index fell slightly. During the holiday, the LME zinc price rose, and the inventory decreased. The structural risk of LME zinc strengthened [12][13]. - Strategy Viewpoint: During the holiday, domestic zinc smelting and downstream enterprises maintained normal production. The non - ferrous metal sector was strong, and the Shanghai zinc price is expected to be strong after the holiday [14]. Lead - Market Information: Before the holiday, the Shanghai lead index rose slightly. During the holiday, the LME lead price rose slightly, and the inventory increased. The lead price structure was under pressure [15]. - Strategy Viewpoint: During the holiday, domestic lead smelting enterprises maintained normal production, and downstream battery enterprises had a shorter holiday. The lead price is expected to be weak and volatile after the holiday [16]. Nickel - Market Information: During the National Day, the nickel price fluctuated. The spot market had little trading activity during the holiday. Before the holiday, the nickel price fluctuated in a narrow range, and downstream enterprises had low enthusiasm for stocking [17]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The refined nickel inventory pressure is significant, which drags down the nickel price. In the medium - and long - term, factors such as US easing expectations and domestic anti - involution policies support the nickel price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider going long on dips [18]. Tin - Market Information: During the National Day, the LME tin price was strong. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand in the new energy and AI fields was good, but the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance fields were still weak [19][20]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The short - term supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance. The tin price is expected to remain high and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Information: On September 30, the carbonate lithium spot index and futures prices fell [21]. - Strategy Viewpoint: After the double festivals, the strong demand in the lithium - battery downstream supports the price, while the supply replenishment expectation suppresses the upside space. Pay attention to the supply continuity of the resource end and the realization of strong demand expectations [21]. Alumina - Market Information: On September 30, the alumina index fell. The domestic spot price fell, and the overseas price was stable. The import window was opened [22]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The ore price has short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [23]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: Before the holiday, the stainless steel futures price fell slightly. The spot price was stable, and the inventory increased [25][26]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Before the holiday, the stainless steel market was in a tug - of - war between cost support and weak demand. If the supply pressure increases after the holiday, the price may continue to decline [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: Before the National Day, the cast aluminum alloy futures price was weak. During the holiday, the cost of raw aluminum rose. The price difference between AL2511 and AD2511 contracts widened, and the inventory increased [27]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The downstream peak season of cast aluminum alloy is not strong, the inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is under pressure. The support comes from the rise in the cost of raw materials [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: Before the holiday, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell. The spot price also decreased, and the inventory increased [30]. - Strategy Viewpoint: During the National Day holiday, steel demand was weak, and inventory accumulated. Although the macro - environment is turning loose, the short - term weak reality is difficult to reverse. The steel price may decline, and attention should be paid to policy signals and the Fourth Plenary Session [31]. Iron Ore - Market Information: On September 30, the iron ore futures price fell slightly. During the holiday, the TSI iron ore price rose. Two news events affected the Singapore iron ore market, but the price returned to stability [32]. - Strategy Viewpoint: During the holiday, steel mills maintained production, and overseas ore shipments were stable. The short - term iron ore price may adjust downward if the downstream situation weakens. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: Before the holiday, the glass futures price fell, and the spot price in some regions rose. The inventory decreased. The soda ash futures price fell, and the spot price decreased. The inventory decreased [34][35]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The glass market is in a wide - range volatile pattern, with weak terminal demand. It is recommended to be bullish in the short - term. The soda ash market is stable with narrow fluctuations, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [34][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: On September 30, the manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices fell. The spot price also decreased. The prices of both are in the shock range [38]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The black sector may experience a short - term downward correction, but in the long - term, it may have the value of long - position allocation. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the trend of the black sector [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: On September 30, the industrial silicon futures price rose slightly, and the spot price was stable. The polysilicon futures price rose slightly, and the spot price was stable [41][43]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The industrial silicon supply - demand is stable in the short - term, and it is expected to be volatile. The polysilicon price may have a short - term decline risk, and attention should be paid to policy changes [42][44]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - Market Information: During the holiday, the prices of Japanese rubber and Singapore rubber rose slightly. The Thai spot prices were mixed. The开工 rate of domestic tire enterprises was different, and the inventory decreased [46][48]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Adopt a medium - term long - position thinking. In the short - term, it is recommended to set a stop - loss, enter short - term long positions quickly, and consider partial hedging operations [50]. Crude Oil - Market Information: During the National Day, the international crude oil market fluctuated. The WTI and Brent crude oil prices were at a certain level. The US API data showed that the Cushing inventory decreased. The OPEC meeting decided on a "principle - based low - speed production increase" [51]. - Strategy Viewpoint: OPEC's production increase plan will suppress the upside space of oil prices. Crude oil is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [52]. Methanol - Market Information: During the holiday, overseas crude oil prices fluctuated. Before the holiday, the methanol spot and futures prices changed. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The inventory decreased [53][54]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The methanol supply - demand situation has improved, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - term long - position opportunities on dips [54]. Urea - Market Information: During the holiday, the urea spot price in some regions decreased. Before the holiday, the futures price rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [55][56]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The urea price is at a low level. It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene spot and futures prices fell. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [57]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The styrene price may stop falling due to the approaching seasonal peak season. The BZN spread has room for upward repair [58]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC futures price fell. The spot price decreased, and the cost was stable. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [59][60]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The PVC supply - demand situation is poor. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The ethylene glycol futures price fell. The spot price decreased. The supply increased, and the demand increased. The inventory decreased [62]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The ethylene glycol supply is high. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [63]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA futures price fell. The spot price decreased. The supply and demand both increased, and the inventory increased [64]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The PTA supply - demand situation is complex. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [65]. p - Xylene - Market Information: The p - xylene futures price fell. The CFR price rose. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The inventory increased [66]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The p - xylene is expected to accumulate inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The PE futures price rose. The spot price was stable. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The inventory decreased [68]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The PE price may fluctuate upward. The cost has support, and the demand is expected to increase [69]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The PP futures price rose. The spot price was stable. The supply was under pressure, and the demand increased. The inventory was under pressure [70]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The PP market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is under pressure [71]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market Information: During the holiday, the domestic pig price fell, the supply increased, and the demand was weak [73]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The pig price is expected to be weak in the short - term. It is recommended to short the near - month contract and conduct reverse hedging. Attention should be paid to post - holiday fluctuations [74]. Eggs - Market Information: During the holiday, the domestic egg price fell, the supply was large, and the demand was weak [75]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The egg market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The price may be weak after the holiday, but there may be support from potential inventory transfer. It is recommended to wait and see [76]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: During the National Day holiday, the CBOT soybean price rose. The domestic soybean meal spot price changed slightly. The Brazilian soybean sowing progress was faster than before [77]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. The price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - term [78]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel policy. The Malaysian palm oil inventory may decrease. The Malaysian palm oil price rose during the holiday [79]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The oil and fat prices are expected to be strong in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes [80]. Sugar - Market Information: Before the holiday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. During the holiday, the raw sugar price changed little. The Brazilian sugar production data was released [81][82]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The sugar price is expected to decline in the large - scale. It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [83]. Cotton - Market Information: Before the holiday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell. During the holiday, the US cotton price fell. The domestic cotton purchase price was lower than last year, and the demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" was weak [84]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The Zhengzhou cotton price is likely to be weak after the National Day. The cost support is around 12860 - 13130 yuan/ton [85].
文字早评2025/10/09星期四：宏观金融类-20251009
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-09 00:55