冠通期货资讯早间报-20251009

Market Performance Overnight - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 1.40% at $4,060.60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.95% at $48.44 per ounce [3][34] - WTI crude oil futures rose 0.92% to $62.3 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 0.96% to $66.08 per barrel [4][35] - Most London base metals fell, with LME zinc down 1.67% at $2,995 per ton, LME tin down 0.79% at $36,250 per ton, LME nickel down 0.64% at $15,390 per ton, LME copper down 0.56% at $10,701 per ton, and LME lead down 0.27% at $2,005.50 per ton [4][35] Key Macroeconomic News - Trump's envoys arrived in Sharm El - Sheikh for negotiations on hostage release and ending the Gaza war [7] - Hurricane "Priscilla" strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane and is moving towards the western coast of Mexico, bringing potential disasters [7] - Russian President Putin said the Russian army will achieve all goals of the special military operation [7] - Trump said Israel and Hamas signed the first phase of the peace plan, and all hostages will be released soon [7] - Fed officials are increasingly divided on future interest rate trends, but most think further rate cuts are necessary this year [7] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of October 4, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory increased by 154,383 kiloliters to 10,289,275 kiloliters, gasoline inventory decreased by 77,841 kiloliters to 1,544,084 kiloliters, and kerosene inventory increased by 53,513 kiloliters to 2,767,332 kiloliters. The average refinery utilization rate was 86.3% [9][10] - As of October 6, the total refined oil inventory at Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 3 million barrels to 16.334 million barrels [10] Metal Futures - Gold prices broke through $4,000 per ounce, hitting a record high. Umicore sold about €410 million worth of gold inventory [12] - HSBC expects silver prices to reach $49 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $41.5 per ounce by the end of 2026 [13] - In August 2025, Indonesia exported 17,710 tons of nickel sulfate, with 17,620 tons going to China (99.49% of the total). It exported 877,181 tons of ferronickel, with 833,931 tons going to China (95.07% of the total) [13] - On October 8, 2025, 30,000 tons of overseas alumina were traded at FOB Indonesia $324.5 per ton for November shipment [14] Black - Series Futures - Shenmu Hongliulin Mining Co., Ltd. of Shaanxi Coal Group was ordered to suspend production for rectification due to over - production [17] - On October 8, coking coal prices in the Changzhi market were weak and stable, with overall supply stable and online auctions seeing price cuts or failures [17] Agricultural Futures - In September, Brazil's soybean exports reached 7.341 million tons, up from 6.106 million tons in the same period last year, with a daily average export increase of 20.2% [18] - Indonesia is promoting the plan to mandate B50 biodiesel in 2026, currently implementing the B40 plan [18] - Argentina's government ordered a suspension of the planned indefinite strike by oilseed workers [18] - As of October 1, Argentine farmers sold 868,100 tons of 2024/25 soybeans and 52,700 tons of 2025/26 soybeans [19] Financial Markets Financial - The Hang Seng Index fell 0.48% to 26,829.46 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.55%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.52%. Gold and nuclear power stocks rose [22] - During the "Double Festival" holiday, overseas stock markets and Chinese concept stocks performed well. Foreign capital net - flowed into Chinese stocks by $4.6 billion in September [22] - On October 9, 23 funds were launched, and nearly 70 new funds are scheduled to be issued in October [23] - In October, brokers' recommended golden stocks are concentrated in electronics, power equipment, and media sectors [23] - Juewei Food will be removed from the Hang Seng A - share (investable) index after the close on October 24 [25] - CITIC Construction Investment believes that precious metals and copper prices have risen, and the A - share market is expected to continue an upward trend [25] - CITIC Securities believes that resource security, enterprise overseas expansion, and technological competition are important structural market clues [25] Industry - The holiday tourism market showed characteristics of strong demand in small cities, booming inbound and outbound travel, and strong experiential consumption [26] - After the "September 5" real - estate policy in Shenzhen, the real - estate market heated up, with new and second - hand housing net - signing volumes increasing [26] - The Changsha property market saw a wave of house - viewing during the "Golden September and Silver October" and the holiday [26] - During the "Double Festival", the price war of liquor sales on e - commerce platforms intensified, with prices of some famous brands falling below the wholesale price [28] Overseas - The IMF expects the global economic growth rate to be about 3% in the medium - term, and global public debt to exceed 100% of GDP by 2029 [29] - The U.S. Senate failed to pass the short - term appropriation bill and the Democratic alternative, and the federal government remains shut down [30] - Trump said the Gaza cease - fire agreement is close to being reached [30] - The U.S. 2025 fiscal deficit is $1.8 trillion, a decrease of $800 million from 2024 [30] - The EU Commission launched two AI strategies to accelerate AI application in industry and science [30] - Germany's industrial output in August fell 4.3% month - on - month and 3.9% year - on - year [31] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 2.5% [31] - The Bank of Thailand maintained the key interest rate at 1.50% [31] - In the first half of fiscal year 2025, the number of bankrupt enterprises in Japan reached 5,172, a 1.5% increase year - on - year [31] International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks mostly rose, with the S&P 500 up 0.58% and the Nasdaq up 1.12%. The Nasdaq closed above 23,000 for the first time [32] - European stocks closed higher, with the German DAX up 0.87%, the French CAC40 up 1.07%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.69% [32] - Tekscend Photomask's IPO price was set at the upper limit of the range, raising ¥156.6 billion [32][33] Commodities - International precious metal futures generally rose, with gold and silver prices increasing [34] - Crude oil prices rose due to a decline in U.S. refined oil inventory and a rising stock market [35] - Most base metals in London fell [35] - The International Copper Study Group predicts a 178,000 - ton surplus in 2025 and a 150,000 - ton shortage in 2026. Goldman Sachs raised the 2026 copper price forecast to $10,500 per ton [35] Bonds - Emerging market sovereign bonds are approaching a "critical point" and may see a structural rating re - evaluation [36] - U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated, with short - term yields rising and long - term yields falling [37] Foreign Exchange - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.27% to 98.86, and most non - U.S. currencies fell [38] Upcoming Economic Data and Events Economic Data - Upcoming economic data includes the UK's September three - month RICS house price index, Japan's foreign bond/equity purchases, etc. [40] Events - Upcoming events include China's central bank's reverse repurchase maturity, the Philippine central bank's interest - rate decision, etc. [42]