原油：季节性累库开启，暂时震荡市

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - WTI November crude oil futures rose by $0.82 per barrel, a 1.33% increase, closing at $62.55 per barrel; Brent December crude oil futures rose by $0.80 per barrel, a 1.22% increase, closing at $66.25 per barrel [1] 2. USGC Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arab Extra Light vs WTI: Spread closed at -$6.16, indicating intense competition in light crude oil, sufficient supply of US light crude oil, and refineries' preference for local low - cost raw materials [2] - Nemba vs WTI MEH: Spread closed at -$5.55, reflecting an oversupply of medium - sulfur crude oil in the Atlantic Basin and the need for a wider spread to stimulate imports [2] - Forties vs WTI MEH: Spread closed at -$7.81, showing a decline in North Sea crude oil competitiveness, high pricing of North Sea crude oil, or sufficient supply of US domestic crude oil [2] 3. NWE Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH vs Forties: Spread open at $1.64, indicating that US crude oil is flowing to the European market, with sufficient US crude oil production and Europe's need for diversified supply sources [3] - Eagle Ford vs Forties: Spread open at $2.49, showing that US shale oil is more competitive than North Sea crude oil and an abundant global supply of light - low - sulfur crude oil [3] - Bonny Light vs Forties: Spread open at $1.79, reflecting the recovery of Nigerian crude oil production and its re - entry into the European market [3] 4. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Murban vs Tapis: Spread open at $0.44, indicating that Middle - Eastern crude oil is flowing to Asia, with continuous Asian market demand for Middle - Eastern crude oil despite narrowing spreads [5] - Bonny Light vs Tapis: Spread open at $1.34, showing strong Asian refineries' preference for West - African low - sulfur crude oil, supporting Atlantic Basin crude oil prices [5] - WTI MEH vs Tapis: Spread open at $1.45, indicating that US crude oil is flowing to Asia in large quantities, reflecting the improvement of US crude oil export infrastructure and the reconstruction of global trade flows [5] 5. Key Market News - The Gaza war has ended. Hostages will be released 72 hours after the Israeli cabinet approves the agreement, expected to happen by next Monday at the latest [7] - US domestic crude oil production for the week ending October 3 was the highest since the week of December 6, 2024. EIA refined oil inventory decline was the largest since the week of June 20, 2025. Domestic crude oil production increase was the largest since the week of January 31, 2025. EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was the highest since the week of October 7, 2022 [7] - US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending October 3 was 3.715 million barrels, with an expected 1.885 million barrels and a previous value of 1.792 million barrels. EIA Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventory was - 763,000 barrels, with a previous value of - 271,000 barrels [7] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that Russia will gradually increase oil production [7] 6. Trend Intensity - The crude oil trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [6]