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Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to continue their strong performance due to supply tightening and loose macro - policies, with demand not significantly weakening [2][3]. - Aluminum prices are likely to move upward as macro - sentiment provides support, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is limited [4][5]. - Lead prices are expected to show a weak and volatile pattern after the holiday, with a higher inventory accumulation rate than in previous years [7][8]. - Zinc prices are expected to strengthen after the holiday, driven by a positive sector atmosphere and structural risks in LME zinc [10][11]. - Tin prices may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with supply and demand in a tight - balance state [13][14]. - Nickel prices may decline in the short term due to inventory pressure but have limited downside space in the long run [15][16]. - The price of lithium carbonate is supported at the bottom by strong downstream demand after the holidays, while supply expectations suppress the upside [19][20]. - Alumina prices are recommended to be observed for now, as the over - capacity situation persists, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous sector [22][23]. - Stainless steel prices may face downward pressure if supply pressure increases after the holiday and there is no substantial positive news [25][27]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy is under pressure above but supported by rising costs, with inventory continuing to accumulate [29][30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - During the National Day holiday, LME copper prices rose, with the 3M contract at $10,701/ton, up 3.14% from before the holiday. LME copper inventory decreased by 0.4 to 139,000 tons, and COMEX copper inventory increased by 0.9 to 303,000 tons. In August, Chile's copper production decreased by over 20,000 tons month - on - month and 9.9% year - on - year. In the third quarter, the output of Kamoa - Kakula Copper Mine in Congo (Kinshasa) decreased by about 40,000 tons quarter - on - quarter. In September, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by about 50,000 tons month - on - month, and is expected to decline further in October [2]. Strategy Viewpoint - Supply tightening and loose macro - policies support copper prices, and demand is not a major resistance. The reference range for the main SHFE copper contract is 84,500 - 86,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is $10,600 - 10,800/ton [3]. Aluminum Market Information - During the National Day holiday, LME aluminum prices rose, with the 3M contract at $2,750/ton, up 3.22% from before the holiday. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.7 to 506,000 tons. In September, China's electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.1% year - on - year and decreased by 3.2% month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased. Overseas electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.9% year - on - year, with a slight decline in the operating rate [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - Macro - sentiment supports aluminum prices, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is limited. The reference range for the main SHFE aluminum contract is 20,900 - 21,400 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is $2,730 - 2,780/ton [5]. Lead Market Information - Before the holiday, the SHFE lead index rose 0.35% to 16,921 yuan/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 37,700 tons. From September 30 to October 8, the LME lead 3M contract rose 0.8% to $2,007/ton, and the inventory increased slightly [7]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the holiday, lead prices are expected to show a weak and volatile pattern, with a higher inventory accumulation rate than in previous years [8]. Zinc Market Information - Before the holiday, the SHFE zinc index fell 0.01% to 21,814 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 141,400 tons. From September 30 to October 8, the LME zinc 3M contract rose 4.08% to $3,035.5/ton, and the inventory decreased to 38,200 tons, with a serious shortage of deliverable inventory [10]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the holiday, zinc prices are expected to strengthen due to a positive sector atmosphere and structural risks in LME zinc [11]. Tin Market Information - During the National Day, LME tin prices were strong, reaching a maximum of $37,695/ton. As of October 7, it was $36,445/ton, up 2.95% from September 30. Supply is tight due to slow复产 in Myanmar and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining. Demand from new - energy vehicles and AI servers is booming, but traditional consumer electronics and home appliances remain weak. In August, the tin solder开工率 of domestic sample enterprises rebounded to 73.22% [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the short term, tin supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. Tin prices may maintain a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to observe. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 280,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $36,000 - 39,000/ton [14]. Nickel Market Information - During the National Day, nickel prices oscillated. As of October 7, the LME nickel price was $15,485/ton, up 1.44% from September 30. The spot market had little trading activity during the holiday. Before the holiday, refined nickel downstream enterprises mainly purchased on - demand [15]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the short term, nickel prices may decline due to inventory pressure but have limited downside space in the long run. It is recommended to observe in the short term and consider buying on dips if the price drops significantly. The reference range for the short - term SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract is $14,500 - 16,500/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - On September 30, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.65%. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.68%, and the industrial - grade decreased by 0.49%. The LC2511 contract closed at 72,800 yuan, down 1.52% [19]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the holidays, strong downstream demand supports the bottom of lithium carbonate prices, while supply expectations suppress the upside. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 71,600 - 74,500 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina Market Information - On September 30, the alumina index fell 1.2% to 2,872 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 2,885 yuan/ton, with a premium of 40 yuan/ton over the 11 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at $321/ton, and the import window opened [22]. Strategy Viewpoint - It is recommended to observe for now. Ore prices may be supported in the short term but face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end persists, and the opening of the import window may exacerbate the surplus. However, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous sector. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,800 - 3,100 yuan/ton [23]. Stainless Steel Market Information - Before the holiday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,730 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets remained stable. The social inventory increased to 984,500 tons, with a 0.88% increase in 300 - series inventory [25][26]. Strategy Viewpoint - Stainless - steel prices may face downward pressure if supply pressure increases after the holiday and there is no substantial positive news [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - Before the National Day holiday, cast aluminum alloy futures prices were weak, and the cost of raw aluminum rose during the holiday. The price difference between AL2511 and AD2511 contracts widened to 520 yuan/ton. The inventory of the exchange and main markets increased before the holiday [29]. Strategy Viewpoint - The downstream peak season of cast aluminum alloy is not strong, with inventory continuing to accumulate. The price is under pressure above but supported by rising costs [30].
有色金属日报-20251009
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-09 01:04