农产品早报：五矿期货农产品早报-20251009

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soybean and Soybean Meal: In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rallies. In the short - term, soybean meal is likely to fluctuate weakly due to high domestic supply pressure and uncertain factors in South American planting and weather [2][3]. - Oils and Fats: The center of the oils and fats market is supported by factors such as low inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, increased demand for soybean oil from the US biodiesel policy, limited production growth potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and reduced export volume expectations from Indonesia. Oils and fats are expected to be strong in the medium - term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5][6]. - Sugar: The data of sugarcane crushing and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of September are bearish. With expected increases in production in the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries in the new season, a bearish outlook is maintained, and short - selling on rallies is advised in the fourth quarter [9][10]. - Cotton: After the National Day, the price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak. The estimated cost support is around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [12][13]. - Eggs: The domestic egg market has a supply - demand imbalance. After the holiday, the futures price may remain weak, but there may be support from potential inventory transfers. It is advisable to wait for the bottom - building process and adopt a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy [15][16]. - Pigs: The current spot price of pigs may continue to decline. A strategy of short - selling near - term contracts and reverse arbitrage is recommended, while being cautious about post - holiday price fluctuations [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal - Market Information: During the National Day holiday, CBOT soybeans rose about 2% compared to the pre - holiday closing price. Domestic soybean meal spot prices slightly decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton in some areas and increased in others. As of October 2, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 9% [2]. - Strategy: The domestic supply pressure is high, and the cost side lacks clear positive factors. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to be loose, and in the short - term, soybean meal is likely to fluctuate weakly [3]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: Indonesia is promoting the B50 plan for biodiesel in 2026. Reuters estimates that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September may have decreased by 2.5% compared to August. During the National Day holiday, Malaysian palm oil rose about 4.2% compared to the pre - holiday closing price. Domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - Strategy: Supported by multiple factors, the oils and fats market is expected to be strong in the medium - term. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [6][7]. Sugar - Market Information: Before the holiday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated. During the National Day holiday, the price of raw sugar changed little. In the first half of September, the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year [8][9]. - Strategy: The data are bearish, and with expected production increases in the new season, short - selling on rallies is advised in the fourth quarter [10]. Cotton - Market Information: Before the holiday, Zhengzhou cotton futures declined. During the National Day holiday, US cotton prices fell. Domestic processing enterprises' cotton purchase is rational, and the purchase price of seed cotton is lower than last year [12]. - Strategy: After the National Day, the price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak, with cost support around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [13]. Eggs - Market Information: During the holiday, domestic egg prices generally declined. Supply is large, demand is weak, and there is inventory accumulation in some areas [15]. - Strategy: The supply - demand imbalance persists. After the holiday, the futures price may remain weak, but there may be support from potential inventory transfers. A wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [16]. Pigs - Market Information: During the holiday, domestic pig prices generally declined. Supply exceeds demand, and there is a possibility of further price drops [17]. - Strategy: The current spot price may continue to decline. A strategy of short - selling near - term contracts and reverse arbitrage is recommended, while being cautious about post - holiday price fluctuations [18].