国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251009

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to have a strong - sided volatile trend due to multiple event disturbances [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil should be observed for the rhythm of EAF production cuts and will have wide - range fluctuations [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will experience weak oscillations as the fundamentals compete with macro - sentiments [2][10] - Coke and coking coal will have wide - range fluctuations with repeated expectations [2][13][14] - Logs will have repeated oscillations [2][16] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The futures price of 12601 was 780.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan or 0.45% from the previous day, and the position decreased by 26,627 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) increased by 1 yuan to 918 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special (56.5%) increased by 1 yuan to 708 yuan/ton. The basis and some spreads changed slightly [4] - Macro and Industry News: Affected by the US government shutdown, the US September seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls change and September unemployment rate data were not released as scheduled [4] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of iron ore is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: For rebar, the RB2601 futures price was 3,072 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 1.13%. For hot - rolled coil, the HC2601 futures price was 3,253 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan or 1.54%. Spot prices in different regions generally declined. The basis and spreads also changed [6] - Macro and Industry News: From January to August, China's industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 4,692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends in different periods [7][8] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also changed. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads showed corresponding changes [10] - Macro and Industry News: In September, the production and operating conditions of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises in different regions were reported, including production volume, capacity utilization, etc. [10][12] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend [12] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: The JM2601 coking coal futures price was 1,126 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan or 2.4%, and the J2601 coke futures price was 1,623 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan or 1.5%. Spot prices and basis, spreads changed to different extents [14] - Macro and Industry News: The China Coking Industry Association stated that it had never issued or authorized any notices or initiatives regarding "forced production cuts" or "joint price increases" [15] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15] Logs - Fundamental Data: For different contracts of logs on the disk, prices, trading volumes, and positions showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions were relatively stable [17] - Macro and Industry News: Affected by the US government shutdown, the US September seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls change and September unemployment rate data were not released as scheduled [19] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [19]