油脂基本面数据：棕榈油：B50路测提前，维持低多及区间操作

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For palm oil, maintain low - buying and range - trading strategies as B50 road tests are ahead; for soybean oil, it opened higher following the rebound of US soybeans during the holiday [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of the Malaysian palm oil main contract was 4,546 ringgit/ton with a 1.65% increase in the day - session and 4,560 ringgit/ton with a 0.33% increase in the night - session. The CBOT soybean oil main contract was at 51.29 cents/pound with a 0.49% increase [1] - Spot Data: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,060 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,450 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,250 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,090 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars [1] - Basis Data: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 168 yuan/ton, that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 310 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 206 yuan/ton [1] - Spread Data: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures main contracts was 816 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures main contracts was - 1,088 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil was 192 yuan/ton, that of soybean oil was 244 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil was 523 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia plans to launch the B50 biodiesel policy next year after completing laboratory tests. The implementation of the B50 policy requires 20.1 million kiloliters of palm - based biofuel annually, while the current B40 policy needs 15.6 million kiloliters [2][3] - SGS estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 30, 2025 were 1,013,140 tons, a 13.41% decrease from the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 1.9% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 2.42% month - on - month from September 1 - 30, 2025. MPOA estimated that Malaysia's palm oil output in September decreased by 2.35%, with a 6.17% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, a 2.35% increase in Sabah, a 6.62% increase in Sarawak, and a 3.44% increase in East Malaysia. The estimated total output in September was 1.81 million tons [4] - Indonesia exported 16.2 million metric tons of crude and refined palm oil from January to August 2025, a 13.56% year - on - year increase, and the export volume in August alone reached 2.56 million tons [4] - A Reuters survey predicted that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September 2025 would be 2.15 million tons, a 2.5% decrease from August, the first decline in seven months; the output was expected to be 1.79 million tons, a 3.3% decrease from August, hitting the lowest level since June; the export volume was expected to be 1.43 million tons, a 7.7% increase from August [5] - Indian traders said that India's soybean oil imports in September increased by 37.3% month - on - month to 505,000 tons, the highest in three years. India's edible oil imports decreased by 0.7% month - on - month to 1.61 million tons, and its sunflower oil imports increased by 5.8% month - on - month to 272,000 tons, the highest in eight months [5] - S&P Global Commodity Insights lowered the forecast of the average yield per acre of US soybeans from 53.8 bushels/acre to 53.0 bushels/acre and the soybean output forecast from 4.306 billion bushels to 4.261 billion bushels. It also lowered the average yield per acre forecast of US corn from 189.1 bushels/acre to 185.5 bushels/acre and the 2025 corn output forecast from 16.768 billion bushels to 16.707 billion bushels [5] - StoneX reported that Brazil's soybean output in the 2025/26 season would reach 178.6 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the September forecast [6] - AgRural said that as of October 2, 2025, the soybean sowing progress in the 2025/26 season reached 9% of the total sowing area, higher than 3.2% a week ago and 4% in the same period last year [6] - The Argentine government ordered a suspension of the indefinite strike planned by the oilseed workers' union at the processing plants due to wage issues [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil was both 1, with the value range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [7]