Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides market analysis and trading strategies for various industries including macro finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals and new materials, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It suggests different trading approaches based on industry fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and market trends [3][16][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The US federal government "shut down" on October 1st due to a lack of funds, which impacts economic data release and brings uncertainty to global financial markets. The deadlock is centered on disagreements over healthcare subsidies. As of October 6th, the "shut down" continued [7]. - From October 1st to 6th, the average daily passenger volume in China increased by 5.18% year - on - year. The average full - fare of civil aviation decreased by 2.58% year - on - year, and the average bare - fare decreased by 0.03% year - on - year [8]. - In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month; non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points [8]. - On October 9th, the central bank will conduct a 110 billion yuan 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation. In October, 80 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchases will mature [9]. - The US will impose tariffs on imported softwood logs, lumber, cabinets, bathroom cabinets, upholstered wood products, and medium and heavy - duty trucks starting from October 14th and November 1st respectively [9]. - Fed officials showed a willingness to further cut interest rates in September but were cautious due to inflation concerns [14]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Consider buying on dips and mainly adopt a shock - trading strategy. The A - share market was active before the holiday, and during the holiday, overseas related indexes showed small increases. Overall, the market may be in a shock state [16][17]. Treasury Bond Futures - Consider buying short - term bonds on dips and focus on the steepening strategy. The domestic bond market news was stable during the holiday. The market's expectations for aggregate policies may fluctuate, and further central bank easing may be needed [18][19]. Black Commodities Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - The black market is expected to maintain a medium - term shock trend. Policy expectations are neutral, downstream demand improvement is limited, and inventory and cost factors also affect the market [19][20]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand of finished products during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [21]. Ferroalloys - After the holiday, focus on the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in September. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in an oversupply state, and a high - selling short - bias strategy is recommended in the long - term [21]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, adopt a high - selling short - bias strategy; for glass, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. The market of soda ash lacks driving factors, and glass needs to pay attention to demand improvement and cost changes [23]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - After the holiday, Shanghai aluminum may follow the rise of LME aluminum, but the increase may be limited. Alumina is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [25]. Lithium Carbonate - Supported by strong short - term reality, lithium carbonate will mainly operate in a shock state. Pay attention to the demand rhythm after the holiday [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon will operate in a range, and short - term long - positions can be considered at the lower end of the range. Polysilicon will continue to operate in a shock state, and attention should be paid to policy and demand changes [27][29]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Adopt a short - selling on rallies strategy. The international cotton market was affected by the US government shutdown and supply pressure during the holiday, and the domestic cotton market is expected to be under supply pressure after the holiday [31][33]. Sugar - Domestically, the sugar market is fundamentally bearish, and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium - term. In the short - term, pay attention to the impact of typhoon weather on production [34][35]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs dropped significantly during the holiday. It is recommended to adopt a short - bias strategy for near - month contracts and pay attention to the spread trading of short - near and long - far contracts [36]. Apples - Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to the impact of rainfall on apple quality during the National Day holiday and the price differences in different regions [38]. Corn - Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and consider selling out - of - the - money call options for the 01 contract. The supply of new corn is increasing, and the price is under pressure [39]. Red Dates - Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to the impact of weather on the quality and output of new dates and the progress of orchard contracting [41]. Pigs - Adopt a short - selling on rallies strategy for near - month contracts. The market is in a state of strong supply and weak demand after the double festivals [42][43]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The price of crude oil is expected to decline due to increased supply and decreased demand. It is recommended to hold existing short - positions [44]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil will follow the trend of crude oil, with a supply - abundant and demand - weak pattern [44]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to fluctuate weakly due to supply pressure, and the market will return to fundamental logic in the short - term [47]. Rubber - The domestic rubber market may continue to fluctuate weakly, affected by macro factors, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to raw material supply and inventory changes [48]. Methanol - The port inventory of methanol is large, but the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. A weak - shock strategy is recommended, and pay attention to port de - stocking [49]. Caustic Soda - The futures price of caustic soda is expected to be under pressure before the improvement of fundamentals [49]. Asphalt - Asphalt will follow the trend of crude oil, and pay attention to the de - stocking speed in October [50][51]. Polyester Industry Chain - Polyester products are expected to be weak due to cost decline. Pay attention to device maintenance and terminal orders [52]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG supply is abundant, and a long - term bearish strategy is recommended. The CP price may be affected by peak - season stocking in the short - term [53]. Offset Printing Paper - The market of offset printing paper is expected to operate in a shock state. A light - long or put - selling strategy can be considered near the production cost [54]. Pulp - The pulp market has some support. A long - position strategy can be considered on dips if the spot price stabilizes [55]. Urea - The price of urea is expected to be weak due to increased supply, postponed demand, and decreased cost [56]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly, and pay attention to downstream procurement after the holiday [57].
中泰期货晨会纪要-20251009
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-09 01:23