工业硅：预计高开低走，建议逢高布空思路，多晶硅：预计高开低走

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is expected to open high and then decline, and it is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies; polysilicon is also expected to open high and then decline [1] - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and the trend intensity of polysilicon is 0, both indicating a neutral outlook [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2511 closing price is 8,640 yuan/ton with a volume of 228,120 hands and a position of 174,398 hands; compared to previous periods, there are various changes in price, volume, and position [1] - PS2511 closing price is 51,360 yuan/ton, with a volume of 163,314 hands and a position of 87,359 hands, also showing different changes compared to previous periods [1] - There are differences in spreads and costs between near - month and continuous contracts for industrial silicon and polysilicon [1] Basis - Industrial silicon has different spot premiums and discounts when compared to different benchmarks (e.g., +810 yuan/ton when compared to East China Si5530), and polysilicon also has corresponding spot premiums and discounts [1] Price - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8,950 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 9,950 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - feed material is 52,550 yuan/ton, with different price changes compared to previous periods [1] - In the polysilicon (photovoltaic) sector, prices of silicon wafers, battery chips, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA also have their own price levels and changes [1] - For organic silicon and aluminum alloy, DMC price is 11,050 yuan/ton, ADC12 is 20,900 yuan/ton, with corresponding price changes [1] Profit - Silicon factory profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan are - 2,629.5 yuan/ton and - 3,568 yuan/ton respectively; polysilicon enterprise profit is - 14.2 yuan/kg, and there are also profit data for DMC enterprises and recycled aluminum enterprises [1] Inventory - Industrial silicon has social, enterprise, industry, and futures warehouse - receipt inventories, with values of 54.3 million tons (social), 16.3 million tons (enterprise), 70.6 million tons (industry), and 25.5 million tons (futures warehouse - receipt), showing different changes compared to previous periods; polysilicon has a factory inventory of 22.6 million tons [1] Raw Material Cost - For industrial silicon raw materials, prices of silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. in different regions have their own price levels and changes; for polysilicon, prices of N - type re - feed material, trichlorosilane, etc. also have corresponding data [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On September 29, the Yunnan Energy Bureau and the Yunnan Energy Regulatory Office jointly issued the "Implementation Rules for the Development and Construction Management of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation in Yunnan Province (Trial)", which has a five - year validity period. It stipulates the proportion of self - used electricity for different types of distributed photovoltaic projects [1][3]