棉花：假期内外盘偏弱、国内籽棉价格稳定

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - During the National Day holiday, domestic cotton spot prices showed different trends, with the price of machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang and southern Xinjiang decreasing, while the 3128B index slightly increased; the domestic cotton yarn market had general trading atmosphere, with some manufacturers reducing prices for promotion due to insufficient downstream demand [1][2] - During the long - holiday, ICE cotton futures fluctuated downward, hitting a new low this year. The new U.S. cotton harvest was large, but exports were poor and the global cotton consumption outlook was uncertain, putting pressure on ICE cotton. The suspension of important USDA reports also made the market lack clear fundamental guidance [2] - The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: On October 9, 2025, CF2601 closed at 13,215 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.01%, and its trading volume was 412,826 lots, an increase of 91,338 lots compared with the previous day, and the position was 745,181 lots, an increase of 12,757 lots; CY2511 closed at 19,410 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.44%, and its trading volume was 0 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots compared with the previous day, and the position was 0 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots; ICE cotton 12 closed at 64.94 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.78% [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,081, a decrease of 92 compared with the previous day, and the effective forecast was 2, unchanged; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 0, unchanged [1] - Spot Price Data: The price of machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang 3128 was 14,492 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.92% compared with the previous day; in southern Xinjiang 3128, it was 14,205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.94%; in Shandong, it was 14,817 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72%; in Hebei, it was 14,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51%. The 3128B index was 14,759 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.01%. The international cotton index M was 73.07 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.19%. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 was 20,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24%, and the arrival price was 21,392 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.06% [1] - Spread Data: The CF1 - 5 spread was - 30 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan compared with the previous day; the spread between machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang 3128 and CF601 was 1,280 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: During the National Day holiday, machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang was being harvested, with the seed cotton price above 6.03 yuan/kg, and the price of high - quality seed cotton around 6.2 yuan/kg. In southern Xinjiang, cotton was sporadically on the market, with the price of machine - picked seed cotton ranging from 5.9 to 6.23 yuan/kg, and the price of hand - picked seed cotton in Kashgar and Aksu ranging from 6.75 to 7.12 yuan/kg [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The trading atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market was general. Affected by the decline in cotton prices, some manufacturers reduced prices for promotion, but downstream demand was insufficient, and new orders were few, with mainly rigid - demand procurement [2] - U.S. Cotton: During the long - holiday, ICE cotton futures fluctuated downward, hitting a new low of 64.16 cents/pound this year. As of October 9, it closed at 64.94 cents/pound, with a cumulative decline of 0.7%. The large harvest of new U.S. cotton, poor exports, and unclear global cotton consumption prospects put pressure on ICE cotton. The suspension of important USDA reports also made the market lack clear guidance [2] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend strength value ranging from - 2 to 2, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4]