国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20251009

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: B50 road test is advanced, maintain low - long and range - bound operations [2][4] - Soybean oil: US soybeans rebounded during the holiday, and soybean oil followed the upward opening of oils and fats [2][4] - Soybean meal: US soybean prices rose during the holiday, and the Dalian soybean meal futures may rebound after the holiday [2][11] - Soybean: Pay attention to the soybean market atmosphere, may rebound and fluctuate [2][11] - Corn: Fluctuate weakly [2][14] - Sugar: Fluctuate strongly [2][17] - Eggs: Spot prices continue to decline [2][21] - Pigs: Spot price decline increased during the holiday, it's a basis - narrowing market [2][23] - Peanuts: Fluctuate weakly [2][26] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - Fundamental Data - Futures: Malaysian palm oil main contract closed at 4,546 ringgit/ton (up 1.65% during the day, 4,560 ringgit/ton at night, up 0.33%); CBOT soybean oil main contract closed at 51.29 cents/pound (up 0.49%) [4] - Spot: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 9,060 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton); first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,450 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton) [4] - Basis: Palm oil (Guangdong) was - 168 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) was 310 yuan/ton [4] - Macro and Industry News - Indonesia plans to launch the B50 biodiesel policy next year, which requires 20.1 million kiloliters of palm - based biofuel annually, while the current B40 policy requires 15.6 million kiloliters [5][6] - SGS: Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 30 were 1,013,140 tons, a 13.41% decrease from the previous month [7] Soybean meal and Soybean - Fundamental Data - Futures: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 3,927 yuan/ton (down 0.10%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 2,928 yuan/ton (down 0.31%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1029.75 cents/bushel (up 0.86%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 278.1 dollars/short - ton (up 0.51%) [11] - Spot: Shandong soybean meal (43%) was 2,940 - 2,980 yuan/ton [11] - Macro and Industry News - On October 8, CBOT soybean futures continued to rise due to possible downward adjustment of US soybean production and improved prospects of China - US trade negotiations [11][13] Corn - Fundamental Data - Futures: C2511 closed at 2,143 yuan/ton (down 1.29%); C2601 closed at 2,130 yuan/ton (down 0.33%) [15] - Spot: Jinzhou平仓 price was 2,280 yuan/ton (unchanged); Guangdong Shekou price was 2,440 yuan/ton (unchanged) [15] - Macro and Industry News - During the National Day holiday, Northeast corn prices declined, and North Port prices rose slightly on October 6; North China corn prices fluctuated with an overall downward trend [16] Sugar - Fundamental Data - Futures: Main contract price was 5,493 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan/ton) [17] - Spot: Mainstream spot price was 5,830 yuan/ton (unchanged) [17] - Macro and Industry News - Typhoon "Madam" affected Guangdong and Guangxi, and floods occurred in Guangxi; Brazil's sugar production in the first half of September increased by 16% year - on - year [17] - Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons [17] Eggs - Fundamental Data - Futures: Egg 2510 closed at 2,909 yuan/500 kilograms (down 0.65%); Egg 2601 closed at 3,360 yuan/500 kilograms (up 0.36%) [21] - Spot: Liaoning spot price was 3.40 yuan/jin (unchanged); Hebei spot price was 2.96 yuan/jin (down 0.11 yuan/jin) [21] Pigs - Fundamental Data - Futures: Pig 2511 closed at 12,355 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan/ton); Pig 2601 closed at 12,825 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan/ton) [23] - Spot: Henan spot price was 12,480 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton); Sichuan spot price was 11,900 yuan/ton (unchanged) [23] Peanuts - Fundamental Data - Futures: PK510 closed at 7,602 yuan/ton (down 2.54%); PK511 closed at 7,764 yuan/ton (down 0.89%) [26] - Spot: Liaoning 308 general peanuts were 8,500 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton); Henan Baisha general peanuts were 8,100 yuan/ton (unchanged) [26] - Spot Market Focus - In Henan, peanut prices were stable; in Jilin, prices were weak; in Liaoning, prices were slightly weaker than the previous day; in Shandong, prices were stable or slightly weak [27]