国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251009

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. However, trend intensities are given for each metal: - Gold: Trend intensity of 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [7]. - Silver: Trend intensity of 1, suggesting a moderately positive view [7]. - Copper: Trend intensity of 2, the strongest positive signal [11]. - Zinc: Trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral stance [13]. - Lead: Trend intensity of 0, also neutral [17]. - Tin: Trend intensity of 1, a moderately positive outlook [22]. - Aluminum: Trend intensity of 0, neutral [26]. - Alumina: Trend intensity of 0, neutral [26]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Trend intensity of 0, neutral [26]. - Nickel: Trend intensity of +1, moderately positive [34]. - Stainless Steel: Trend intensity of +1, moderately positive [34]. 2. Core Views - Gold: Expected to continue reaching new highs. The trend intensity of 1 shows a positive but not extremely strong upward trend [2][7]. - Silver: Forecasted to experience a period of oscillatory adjustment, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. - Copper: Supply disruptions are expected to drive up prices, with a strong positive trend intensity of 2 [2][11]. - Zinc: The market has certain support factors, but the trend intensity of 0 indicates a neutral market situation [12][13]. - Lead: Lacks clear driving forces, and prices are likely to fluctuate within a range, with a neutral trend intensity of 0 [16][17]. - Tin: Prices are expected to move within a specific range, with a moderately positive trend intensity of 1 [19][22]. - Aluminum: Maintains a bullish outlook, although the trend intensity is 0, suggesting a more cautious bullish stance [24]. - Alumina: There are differences in market views, and the trend intensity of 0 reflects a neutral situation [24]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a neutral trend intensity of 0 [24]. - Nickel: There is a game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and investors should be vigilant about news - related disturbances, with a moderately positive trend intensity of +1 [28][34]. - Stainless Steel: In the short - term, there is a game between supply - demand and cost factors, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate, with a moderately positive trend intensity of +1 [28][34]. 3. Summary by Metal Gold - Price Performance: The Shanghai Gold 2510 contract closed at 863.60 with a daily increase of 1.29%, and the night - session price reached 870.42 with a 1.02% increase. Comex Gold 2510 closed at 3862.90 with a 1.93% increase [5]. - Market News: Fed minutes suggest that most officials believe continued easing this year may be appropriate, and the US government shutdown continues, among other factors affecting the gold market [5][8]. Silver - Price Performance: The Shanghai Silver 2510 contract closed at 10912 with a 3.07% daily increase, and the night - session price was 10907.00 with a 0.66% increase. Comex Silver 2510 closed at 47.110 with a 1.61% increase [5]. - Market News: Similar macro - news as gold also impacts the silver market [5][8]. Copper - Price Performance: The Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 83,110 with a 0.90% daily increase, and the night - session price reached 83680 with a 0.69% increase. The LME Copper 3M electronic - disk price increased by 3.93% to 10,701 [9]. - Market News: Freeport declared force majeure at the Indonesian Grasberg mine, and Chile's copper production in August decreased by 9.9%, among other supply - side factors driving up prices [9][11]. Zinc - Price Performance: The Shanghai Zinc main contract closed at 21825 with a 0.11% increase, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - disk price increased by 1.25% to 3042 [12]. - Market News: Fed officials have differences in views on interest - rate cuts, and the government shutdown affects economic data release, which impacts the zinc market [13]. Lead - Price Performance: The Shanghai Lead main contract closed at 16940 with a 0.50% increase, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - disk price increased by 0.07% to 2005 [16]. - Market News: Fed officials' concerns about inflation and employment, as well as the US government shutdown, are the main influencing factors [17]. Tin - Price Performance: The Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 272,410 with a 0.61% decrease, but the night - session price increased by 2.62% to 279,670. The LME Tin 3M electronic - disk price increased by 3.05% to 35,465 [20]. - Market News: Global macro - events such as the US government shutdown, Fed policies, and geopolitical situations affect the tin market [20][23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price Performance: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 20680, and the LME Aluminum 3M price was 2687. The Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 2868, and the cast aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20210 [24]. - Market News: The US government shutdown, budget deficits, and other macro - factors impact the market. There are also differences in views on alumina [24][26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price Performance: The Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 120,900, and the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,730 [28]. - Market News: Indonesian mining policies, production suspensions in some nickel - iron smelting plants, and other factors affect the market. There is a game between smelting inventory and ore - end expectations in the nickel market, and a game between supply - demand and cost in the stainless - steel market [28][30][34].