中信期货晨报：国内商品多数下跌，贵金属股指延续升势-20251009

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global Macro Situation: The US government is in a shutdown, and Japan may have its first female prime - minister. Domestically, the economy continues to stabilize, with the manufacturing PMI rising and the non - manufacturing PMI falling slightly. In October, domestic assets benefit from policy expectations and ample liquidity, while overseas focus is on the Fed's potential October rate cut and the BOJ's inaction. The weak - dollar trend continues but at a slower pace, and US stocks face risks while oscillating upwards. In asset allocation, the order of preference in the fourth quarter is equities > commodities > bonds [8]. - Market Outlook for Different Sectors: Most sectors are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, including financial, precious metals, shipping, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agriculture sectors [9][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price Movements - Financial Instruments: Stock index futures, such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures, have shown varying degrees of daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly increases. Treasury futures have generally been weak, with some showing small increases and others decreases [3]. - Industry Indices: Industries like construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals have positive price increases, while sectors such as food and beverage, and some technology - related industries have seen declines [4]. - Overseas Commodities: Energy commodities like NYMEX WTI crude and ICE Brent crude have declined, while precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have increased. Non - ferrous metals and agricultural products also show different price trends [4]. - Domestic Commodities: Precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products all have their own price movement characteristics, with some rising and some falling [5]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - Overseas Macro: The US government shutdown may negatively impact the US economy. The potential election of Japan's first female prime - minister, who advocates "Abenomics" and has a tough stance on China, may affect Sino - Japanese relations and market risk appetite [8]. - Domestic Macro: The domestic economy continues to stabilize, with the manufacturing PMI rising and the non - manufacturing PMI falling slightly. During the holiday, consumption and travel were active, but movie box - office consumption was weak [8]. 3.3 Sector - by - Sector Analysis - Financial Sector: The stock market has a volume - shrinking rebound, and the bond market remains weak. Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while stock index options and treasury futures are expected to be volatile [9]. - Precious Metals Sector: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner [9]. - Shipping Sector: Attention is paid to the rate of freight price decline. The container shipping to Europe line and steel - related products are expected to be volatile [9]. - Black Building Materials Sector: A negative feedback loop is difficult to form, and the sector is expected to remain volatile before the holiday [9]. - Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector: Supply disruptions continue to drive price movements, and most non - ferrous metals are expected to be volatile [9]. - Energy Chemical Sector: Crude oil continues to be volatile, and the chemical sector is mainly for hedging and arbitrage, with most products expected to be volatile [11]. - Agricultural Sector: Affected by Argentina's tariff policy changes, oilseeds and meals have been hit hard, and most agricultural products are expected to be volatile [11].