节后价格再平衡，软商品警惕调整

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Views - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks in summer, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The overall growth of sugarcane in southern producing areas is good, but the sugar production in some beet - producing areas in China is affected. The strategy is to mainly wait and see [1][3]. - In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was at high risk of heat damage. The commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the cotton price has bottom - support. The import of cotton is lower than expected, and the demand for cotton is expected to recover seasonally during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, with potential for price increase. The strategy is to mainly wait and see [1][3]. Summaries based on Related Content Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,780 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,810 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14,950 yuan [1]. Market Trends - U.S. sugar closed at 16.32, with a change of - 1.92%. U.S. cotton closed at 64.94, with a change of 0.78% [1]. Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the summer demand for cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets [1]. - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increased the risk of heat damage to cotton. The commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is approaching, providing bottom - support for cotton prices [1]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8,968, with a change of 0.00%. Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 3,081, with a change of 0.00% [2][4]. Data Quick View - External Market Quotes: U.S. sugar decreased from 16.64 to 16.32, a change of - 1.92%. U.S. cotton increased from 64.44 to 64.94, a change of 0.78% [4]. - Spot Prices: Nanning and Kunming sugar spot prices remained unchanged. The cotton index 328 decreased slightly by 0.01%, and Xinjiang cotton spot price remained unchanged [4]. - Price Difference Quick View: Most price differences and basis points remained unchanged, with only a slight increase in cotton basis points [4]. - Import Prices: The cotton cotlookA price remained unchanged [4]. - Profit Margins: The sugar import profit remained unchanged [4]. - Options: The implied volatilities of SR601C5500, SR601P5500, CF601C13200, and CF601P13200 are 0.1034, 0.0929, 0.1347, and 0.1294 respectively [4]. Conclusions - Sugar: The overall growth of sugarcane in southern producing areas is good, but the sugar production in some beet - producing areas in China is affected. Brazil's sugar production progress has accelerated, and the market expects production to exceed consumption. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating [3]. - Cotton: Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is reduced. The overall growth of new - season cotton is better than last year, and the demand for cotton is expected to recover seasonally during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, with potential for price increase [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Mainly wait and see [3]