政策预期继续发酵，建议逢低做多，谨慎追高

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oscillation - Medium - short - term: Bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the National Day holiday, the overall situation of domestic news was stable, and the issue of the U.S. government shutdown continued to ferment overseas, but the actual impact on peripheral stock indices was limited. The contribution of foreign capital to the A - share index rally was not high, so the subsequent international influence was limited. With the expectation of narrowing Sino - U.S. interest rate differentials, macro - level risks were basically cleared, and the stock index entered a stage where it was more likely to rise than fall. In the short term, the pre - holiday market was in a high - level consolidation state, and the main contradiction between bulls and bears was the improvement of long - term fundamentals versus high short - term valuations. The time point for breaking the deadlock in October might be around the Fourth Plenary Session on the 20th. The small - cap cyclical style (including the previously undervalued optional consumer industry) was expected to be the direction of post - holiday capital speculation, but the rotation speed within the sector was expected to be relatively fast. Technology stocks remained the medium - term main line, but the short - term cost - performance was not high. Attention should be paid to the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - From October 1st to 8th, the cumulative cross - regional personnel flow in the whole society was expected to exceed 2.432 billion person - times, a record high, with an average daily flow of 304 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The Fed's September meeting minutes showed that Fed officials were willing to cut interest rates further this year, but many officials were cautious due to inflation concerns. Most participants believed that further easing of policies might be appropriate for the rest of the year [5]. 3.2 Stock Index Disk Review - Market Tracking: On the last trading day before the holiday, the A - share market oscillated at a high level. Among the four major indices, the SSE 50 rose 0.53%, the CSI 300 rose 0.45%, the CSI 500 rose 0.84%, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.03%. In terms of sectors, aerospace and military industry (+3.45%) and basic metals (+3.04%) led the gains, while communication equipment (-1.71%) and insurance (-1.38%) lagged behind. More than 2,600 stocks rose, and 63 stocks hit the daily limit, with a relatively poor profit - making effect [5]. - Technical Tracking: There were high - level divergences on the daily line. The CSI 300 and CSI 500 were stronger than the SSE 50 and CSI 1000. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support and pressure between the "20 - day moving average + September 4th low - previous high". The weekly and monthly lines maintained an upward trend, and the medium - term bullish signal continued [5]. - Fund Flow: The pre - holiday trading volume of A - shares narrowed to about 2.1 trillion yuan. The willingness of funds to enter the market before the long holiday decreased, but it was still at a relatively high level in history [5]. 3.3 Core Logic Summary - After the holiday, the stock index was expected to continue the oscillation pattern with enlarged overall fluctuations. Trend traders were not recommended to chase high on the first trading day after the holiday. They could consider gradually increasing positions when the index pulled back to the 20 - day moving average or the low point in early September. If the long positions had achieved profits before the October meeting, they could take profits and exit in a timely manner [3]. 3.4 Operation Suggestions - Futures Operation: Considering that the stock index failed to break through effectively before the holiday, trend traders were not recommended to chase high on the first trading day after the holiday. They could consider gradually increasing positions when the index pulled back to the 20 - day moving average or the low point in early September [4]. - Options Operation: The implied volatility declined before the holiday. The average IV of the CSI 300 for the current month fluctuated around 18%, which was at a medium - high level in history. Considering the limited news fluctuations during the holiday, the volatility was expected to decline slightly after the holiday, and the overall operation cost - performance was limited. It was recommended to wait for the volatility to rise before intervening in double - selling [4].