期指：节后首日或偏强震荡为主

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On the first trading day after the holiday, stock index futures are expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - On October 1st, all the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures rose. IF increased by 0.18%, IH by 0.11%, IC by 0.96%, and IM by 1.16% [1]. - On this trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 55,415 lots, IH by 38,045 lots, IC by 31,869 lots, and IM by 67,749 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 21,993 lots, IH by 14,682 lots, IC by 9,846 lots, and IM by 15,617 lots [1][2]. 3.2. Top 20 Member Positions in Stock Index Futures - The long - and short - position changes of the top 20 members in different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided. For example, in IF2510, the long - position decreased by 6,967 and the short - position decreased by 7,491; in IH2510, the long - position decreased by 4,068 and the short - position decreased by 4,615 [5]. 3.3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.4. Important Drivers - An important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping was published in the 19th issue of Qiushi Journal on October 1st, emphasizing the formation and development of the Chinese nation community [6]. - During the holiday, the cumulative cross - regional passenger flow exceeded 2 billion person - times, and the sales of key retail and catering enterprises in the first four days of the holiday increased by 3.3% year - on - year. The total box office of the 2025 National Day film season exceeded 1.7 billion yuan [6]. 3.5. External Factors - The US government's "shutdown" postponed the release of key economic data, bringing uncertainties. After the release of the US ADP data for September, the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October rose to 99%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut by December reached 89.3% [7]. - Koike Sanae was elected as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party and is expected to become the prime minister. Her tendency towards loose policies is beneficial to the Japanese stock market [8]. - OpenAI's video model Sora topped the application list, AMD reached a chip cooperation with OpenAI, and many multinational chip giants raised their quotes [9]. - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded to contributors in the field of quantum mechanics, and the Nobel Prize in Medicine was also announced, reflecting global technological front - line trends [10]. 3.6. A - share Market Performance - On the last trading day of September, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.52% to 3,882.78 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.35%, and the ChiNext Index remained flat. The A - share market traded 2.2 trillion yuan throughout the day, compared with 2.18 trillion yuan the previous day. The three major indexes have risen for five consecutive months, with the ChiNext Index rising more than 50% in the third quarter, achieving the second - best result in history [11].