对二甲苯：中期仍偏弱，PTA，中期仍偏弱，MEG，1-5月差反套

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Medium-term outlook remains weak [1] - PTA: Medium-term outlook remains weak [1] - MEG: Implement a reverse spread strategy for the 1-5 month spread [1] Core Views - After the holiday, PX is expected to make up for the decline and operate weakly; PTA is expected to make a small compensatory decline; MEG is expected to make up for the decline at the opening [16][17] - During the holiday, PX valuation fluctuated with the cost-side crude oil price, rebounding after a decline; PTA's FOB China price slightly decreased; MEG's CFR China price dropped [16][17] - After the holiday, attention should be paid to the planned shutdown and maintenance of Hengli Dalian No. 1 device; the polyester factory's inventory is expected to accumulate to a high level, and attention should be paid to whether winter order demand can drive inventory digestion [16][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - Futures Data: On the previous trading day, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures main contracts were 6570, 4594, 4207, 6276, and 479.7 respectively, with changes of -100, -58, -17, -60, and -12.9, and changes of -1.50%, -1.25%, -0.40%, -0.95%, and -2.62% [2] - Spot Data: On the previous trading day, the spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 803.83 US dollars/ton, 4545 yuan/ton, 4275 yuan/ton, 585.25 US dollars/ton, and 67.09 US dollars/barrel respectively [2] - Processing Fee Data: On the previous trading day, the PX-naphtha price difference, PTA processing fee, short fiber processing fee, bottle chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha-Dubai crude oil price difference were 208.75, 210.35, 255.45, 115.28, and -6.01 respectively [2] Market Dynamics - Japan's Idemitsu Kosan shut down two 200,000-ton/year PX production lines at its Chita plant for planned maintenance from mid-September to mid-December, while its other production lines in Japan are operating normally [2][3] - On October 7, Asian PX prices rose further, with Platts' assessments of Asian PX CFR Unv1/China and FOB Korea markers up 2.50 US dollars/ton day over day [5] - On October 7, Asian afternoon crude oil futures were little changed after two consecutive sessions of higher settlements, and reports of a drone strike on Russia's Kirishi oil refinery supported prices; meanwhile, US crude oil stocks likely rose by 2.84 million barrels to about 419.4 million barrels in the week ended October 3 [6][7][8] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 - PTA trend intensity: 0 - MEG trend intensity: -1 [15]