国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251009

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Various commodities in the energy and chemical industry show different trends. For example, p-xylene and PTA are expected to be weak in the medium term; rubber and paper pulp are likely to move sideways; synthetic rubber is under pressure and may experience a slowdown in the decline rate; asphalt has seen a price drop during the National Day holiday, and its price may remain weak; LLDPE and PP are expected to have a sideways market in the medium term; caustic soda is suppressed by the weak current situation but supported by costs; urea is expected to run weakly; styrene is likely to move sideways in the short term; soda ash's spot market has little change; LPG's overseas market was weak during the holiday; propylene's spot price stopped falling and rebounded during the holiday; PVC is in a low-level sideways movement; fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil are expected to be weak; the container shipping index (European line) has a downward risk; short fiber and bottle chip trends are weak; offset printing paper and pure benzene are likely to move sideways in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: It is expected to be weak in the medium term. During the holiday, its valuation fluctuated with the cost-side crude oil price, falling and then rebounding. After the holiday, it is expected to make up for the decline and run weakly. Attention should be paid to the planned shutdown and maintenance of Hengli Dalian No. 1 device after the holiday [2][19]. - PTA: It is expected to be weak in the medium term. During the holiday, the domestic spot had no transaction price, and it is expected to make a small supplementary decline after the holiday. Due to the low processing fee, many factories chose to shut down for maintenance before the festival, and attention should be paid to the implementation of device maintenance after the holiday [2][20]. - MEG: A 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage is recommended. During the holiday, the Asian MEG CFR China transaction price decreased, and it is expected to make up for the decline after the holiday. The arrival volume in China during the holiday was high, and the port entered a inventory accumulation pattern. Attention should be paid to whether the winter order demand can drive inventory digestion [2][19]. Rubber - It is expected to move sideways. The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber, the main raw materials for tires, have decreased, and the raw material cost of tires has slightly declined. During the holiday, some tire enterprises had maintenance plans, which will drag down the capacity utilization rate. After the holiday, the overall output is expected to be lower than that in September. Some tire enterprises announced price increases, and whether the price increase can be implemented remains to be seen [22][24]. Synthetic Rubber - It is under pressure and may experience a slowdown in the decline rate. The fundamentals of cis - butadiene rubber and butadiene have increased pressure, mainly from high supply. The cost side of cis - butadiene rubber is also under pressure. The static valuation lower limit of cis - butadiene rubber is currently around 10,800 - 10,900 yuan/ton, and it is expected that the decline rate will slow down after the holiday [25][27]. Asphalt - During the National Day holiday, the international oil price declined, and the asphalt price weakened. The overall supply increased slightly during the holiday, with different trends in different regions. The downstream construction in the southern region was still hindered by rainfall, and the downstream procurement in the northern region was mainly based on low - price asphalt transactions [28][38]. LLDPE - It is expected to have a sideways market in the medium term. The number of planned maintenance devices has decreased, and it is expected that the domestic polyethylene output in October will increase compared with September. The market changed little during the holiday. The agricultural film demand is in the peak season, and the supply - side pressure in the East China region has been relieved. After the holiday, the market is expected to be mainly sideways [39][40]. PP - It is expected to have a sideways market in the medium term. During the holiday, the market changed little. The short - term demand improved month - on - month. The supply - side maintenance has gradually increased recently, and the price has low elasticity at a low level due to low profits. The downstream processing start - up rate has slightly improved, and the procurement is in a state of buying on the rise [43][44]. Caustic Soda - It is suppressed by the weak current situation but supported by costs. During the holiday, the caustic soda price was basically unchanged, and some manufacturers slightly increased the price after the holiday. There are new maintenance plans in Shandong and Hebei in October, and the supply pressure is not large. The demand - side alumina new production capacity may start stockpiling in late October. In the long term, the alumina profit is continuously compressed, and the production reduction expectation will still suppress the caustic soda futures valuation [47][49]. Paper Pulp - It is expected to move sideways. Before the festival, the pulp price declined, and the market was weak. During the holiday, the spot price was stable. Some pulp mills had maintenance plans, and the port inventory accumulated. The current market has abundant spot supply, and the previous sharp decline in the futures market and the pressure of old warehouse receipts have jointly suppressed the pulp price rebound space [52][55]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. Today, the domestic float glass market price rose steadily. The small and large plates in Shahe increased slightly, and the transaction price in the Shandong market increased. The market trading atmosphere was relatively dull before the holiday due to local logistics restrictions and weakening of market rigid demand [56][57]. Methanol - It is expected to move sideways in the short term. After the holiday, the methanol spot market is expected to remain active. In October, the methanol import is expected to be sufficient, and the current port inventory is still at a high level. The inland market's logistics and transportation will gradually return to normal after the holiday, and the demand side will provide support for the inland methanol market. There are still some methanol enterprises with maintenance plans in October [60][62]. Urea - It is expected to run weakly. During the National Day, the urea price was weakly stable. India announced a new round of urea tenders, but the market trading mentality was still cautious. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the weak domestic demand is still the main contradiction. It is recommended to pay attention to the 11 - 05 or 01 - 05 reverse arbitrage [66][67]. Styrene - It is expected to move sideways in the short term. Before the National Day, short positions stopped profiting. The industrial chain valuation has gradually declined, and the high - inventory contradiction is still difficult to solve in the short term. The market has begun to hype the anti - deflation and anti - involution policies, and it is recommended to stop profiting from short positions before the National Day [68][69]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is running stably, and the price has no obvious fluctuation. The soda ash device is running stably, and the supply is hovering at a high level. Before the holiday, the downstream enterprises had a certain raw material reserve, and the procurement slowed down, mainly for rigid demand. It is expected that the short - term soda ash market will fluctuate steadily [71][72]. LPG and Propylene - LPG: The overseas market was weak during the holiday. - Propylene: The spot price stopped falling and rebounded during the holiday. The PDH and MTBE start - up rates have increased. Attention should be paid to the domestic PDH and LPG device maintenance plans [74][75]. PVC - It is in a low - level sideways movement. The PVC market has a high - production and high - inventory structure that is difficult to change. Although there is support at the low level due to the strong willingness of short positions to stop profiting, the supply side maintains high - level operation, the domestic demand is weak, and the inventory transfer to the downstream is not smooth [81]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: It has turned weak in the short term, and the fluctuation will increase. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It may decline at the opening, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to narrow [2][84]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The geopolitical situation has cooled down rapidly, and attention should be paid to the downward risk. The freight rates of European and US - West routes have declined, and the forward - looking shipping capacity has not changed significantly [86].