资讯早班车-2025-10-09-20251009

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - shares are expected to maintain an upward - trending oscillation in the context of stable economic fundamentals, continuous inflow of incremental funds, global liquidity easing, and improved Sino - US relations [28][29]. - During the "Double Festival" in China, the international gold futures price reached a new historical high. Although there is a callback risk in the short term, gold will still perform well in the long - term due to the expected decline in the credibility and purchasing power of the US dollar [21][22]. - To achieve the goal of doubling the economic aggregate or per capita income compared to 2020 by 2035, China's economy needs to maintain a moderate average annual growth rate of about 4% - 4.5% during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. Policies in various fields will focus on technological innovation and industrial upgrading [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP at constant prices grew by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year (4.7%) [1]. - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points [1][16]. - In August 2025, social financing increment was 2566.8 billion yuan, M0 increased by 11.7% year - on - year, M1 by 6.0%, and M2 by 8.8% [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Mexico launched 4 anti - dumping investigations on Chinese products such as float glass and PVC coated fabrics, and China initiated a trade and investment barrier investigation [2]. - On October 9, the A - share market started the fourth - quarter trading. Overseas stock markets generally strengthened during the holiday, and the international gold price exceeded $4000 per ounce, while domestic consumption during the Golden Week showed resilience, which may support the A - share market [2]. - The Fed showed a willingness to cut interest rates further in 2025, but many officials were cautious due to inflation concerns. The WTO raised the 2025 global goods trade growth forecast to 2.4% and lowered the 2026 forecast to 0.5% [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - During the "National Day" holiday, the global commodity market was dominated by the metal sector. The international gold price exceeded $4000 per ounce, and domestic gold jewelry prices reached new highs. The price of copper may rise due to supply shortages [5]. - The central bank's gold reserve increased for 11 consecutive months. The LME inventory of some metals changed, and the copper market is expected to shift from a surplus in 2025 to a shortage in 2026 [6][7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The State Council's Work Safety Committee deployed the investigation, sealing, and rectification of abandoned mines and the crackdown on illegal mining [8]. - The Xinjiang Jinghe County coal reserve project was completed and put into use, with a total construction area of 131,647.92 square meters and a new 250,000 - ton coal storage bunker [8]. - Brazil and China plan to jointly establish a $1 - billion investment fund focusing on energy transition, infrastructure, and other fields [8][9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On October 8, the US crude oil futures rose due to a decline in US refined oil inventories and a rise in the stock market. Azerbaijan's BTC crude oil exports in November are expected to decrease [10]. - Russia is committed to fulfilling the OPEC+ agreement, gradually increasing oil production, and its refineries have increased fuel production [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Brazil is expected to export 1.92 million tons of soybean meal and 7.12 million tons of soybeans in October 2025 [12]. - China proposed to strengthen regional agricultural cooperation at the ASEAN - China - Japan - South Korea Agriculture and Forestry Ministers' Meeting [13]. - Ukraine approved a tax - free export mechanism for rapeseed and soybeans [13]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On October 9, the central bank conducted 1.1 trillion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations, with an incremental roll - over of 300 billion yuan [14]. - On September 30, the central bank conducted 242.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 33.9 billion yuan [14]. - This week, 2.6633 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 2.0633 trillion yuan maturing on October 9 [14]. 3.3.2 Important News and Information - China and the US should expand cooperation and resolve issues through equal negotiation [15]. - As of the end of June 2025, China's total external debt was 1.74437 trillion yuan, and the debt risk was generally controllable [15][16]. - In September 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0% [16]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - On September 30, the bond market and futures market recovered, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declining [23]. - On October 8, European and US bond yields generally fell [25][26]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - On September 30, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1186, up 18 points from the previous trading day [27]. - On October 8, the US dollar index rose 0.27%, and most non - US currencies fell [27]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Construction Investment believes that precious metals and copper prices have risen, and A - shares are expected to rise in the future [28][29]. - Yangtze River Fixed Income analyzed the situation of the money market last week [29]. - CITIC Securities estimated China's economic growth rate during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [29]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - On Wednesday, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.48%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 0.55%. Gold and nuclear power stocks rose, while AI and consumer stocks were weak [32]. - During the "Double Festival", overseas stock markets and Chinese concept stocks performed well, and foreign capital flowed into the Chinese stock market in September [32]. - On October 9, 23 funds were launched, and about 70 new funds are scheduled to be issued in October, mainly including active equity funds, index funds, and convertible bond funds [33].