国庆期间籽棉价格持稳运行，下游需求维持偏弱格局关注四季度宏观政策，短期棉价或承压运行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The domestic cotton price is expected to remain under pressure in the short to medium term due to factors such as this year's cotton bumper harvest, low price expectations of farmers for seed cotton, weak downstream demand, and the influence of the macro - environment [2][3]. Summary by Directory Part I: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets - Weekly Data Overview: As of October 07, the CRB commodity price index closed at 301.07 points, down 3.96 points from September 26. On September 30, the Wenhua Commodity Index was 162.02, down 1.78 points or 1.09% from September 26. The ICE cotton futures main December contract was at 64.39 cents/pound on September 30, down 1.94 cents/pound or 2.9% from September 26. The Zhengzhou cotton main 01 contract closed at 13,215 yuan/ton on September 30, down 190 yuan/ton from September 26, with positions increasing by 635 lots to 535,000 lots [2][10][33]. - Imported Cotton CNF Quotes: From September 26 to September 30, the prices of US E/MOTM and Brazilian M imported cotton increased slightly, with the 1% customs - cleared and sliding - scale tax prices also rising [9]. Part II: Basic Situation of the Domestic Market - Textile Raw Material Trends: On September 30, the prices of raw materials showed mixed trends compared to September 26. The prices of polyester staple fiber and CCI3128 increased slightly, while the prices of viscose remained unchanged, and the prices of Zhengzhou cotton main contract decreased [15]. - Cotton Yarn Price Trends: On September 30, the domestic yarn prices decreased compared to September 26, while the RMB - denominated prices of imported pure - cotton yarns increased slightly due to RMB depreciation. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns narrowed [18][20][23]. - Comparison of Domestic Cotton Spot and Futures Prices with International Cotton Price Index: On September 30, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 15,283 yuan/ton. The difference between the spot price index and the sliding - scale tax - included foreign cotton price was 1,059 yuan/ton. The difference between the main contract and the FCIndexM (sliding - scale tax) widened [26]. Part III: Analysis of the Zhengzhou Cotton Market - Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts: As of September 30, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 3,397 lots (146,000 tons), with 12 effective forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 146,000 tons, down from 182,000 tons on September 26 [29]. - Analysis of the Basis of Zhengzhou Cotton: On September 30, the difference between the Zhengzhou cotton futures price and the CCI3128B index was - 1,563 yuan/ton, wider than on September 26 [30]. - Analysis of Zhengzhou Cotton Prices: The macro - environment shows that major economies are in an interest - rate cut cycle. During the National Day, the seed cotton purchase price stabilized. The current pure - cotton yarn market has average trading volume, and the spinning mills' profit situation has improved slightly. The domestic cotton price is expected to be under pressure in the short to medium term. Technically, the indicators of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract have weakened [31][32][34]. Part IV: Analysis of the International Market - US Cotton Export Dynamics: From September 12 - 18, US 2025/26 annual net signing of upland cotton decreased by 54% week - on - week, and shipments increased by 14%. The net signing of Pima cotton increased significantly week - on - week, and shipments of Pima cotton increased significantly compared to the previous week [40]. - Analysis of ICE Cotton Futures: On September 30, the ICE cotton futures main December contract was at 64.39 cents/pound, down 1.94 cents/pound or 2.9% from September 26. Technically, the KDJ indicator formed a dead cross and diverged downward, and the technical indicators weakened [44]. Part V: Operation Suggestions - For upstream cotton enterprises, calculate the lint cost based on the seed cotton purchase price and hedge on the futures market or consider buying put options to hedge risks [46]. - For downstream spinning mills, when the raw material price drops, consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the lint purchase cost [46].