宝城期货甲醇早报-20251009

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The short - term view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is a decline, and the overall reference view is weak operation [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Performance and View - The methanol 2601 contract shows short - term weakness, medium - term decline, and intraday weakness, with a core logic of being dominated by bearish factors and weak and volatile [1]. 3.2 Core Logic - During the National Day holiday, the unexpected shutdown of the US federal government led to a systemic risk, increasing global financial market risk - aversion sentiment. Gold futures strengthened, while other commodities were generally under pressure. Domestically, methanol's high operating rate and weekly output, along with increasing external import pressure and high post - holiday port inventory, contribute to the bearish outlook. Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin market profit is poor, and the weak demand situation remains to be improved [5]. Calculation Rules - For commodities with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price. A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% is weakly volatile, a rise of 0 - 1% is strongly volatile, and a rise greater than 1% is an increase. Strongly/weakly volatile only applies to intraday views [2][3][4].