综合晨报-20251009

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend during the National Day holiday, with different performances in various industries. Some commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitics, and policy changes, and investors need to pay attention to different influencing factors for different industries [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - Crude Oil: International oil prices generally declined around the National Day holiday and are in a rebound - repair period. The EIA report shows an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, but strong refined oil demand supports prices. The strategy of combining short positions in SC and out - of - the - money call options can be opportunistically closed for profit [2] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The fuel oil market followed crude oil to weaken during the holiday, with high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuels showing different trends. High - sulfur fuel is supported by geopolitical conflicts, while low - sulfur fuel is weak due to low demand and sufficient supply [20] - Asphalt: Oil prices fell during the holiday, and the asphalt is expected to decline slightly. However, with the expected supply pressure in October and the subsequent northern construction demand, the asphalt is expected to be less pressured and have upward cracking elasticity [21] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The domestic LPG market showed regional differences at the end of the holiday, with the northern market falling and the southern market stable. The market has obvious bottom support [22] Metals - Precious Metals: Precious metals continued to be strong during the National Day, with gold breaking through the $4,000 mark. The long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged, but short - term profit - taking risks should be noted [3] - Copper: LME copper rose by over 3% during the holiday, affected by supply losses. The growth rate of copper concentrate production is expected to be adjusted, and the Shanghai copper may test 85,000 yuan after the holiday, with high - risk of two - way fluctuations [4] - Aluminum: LME aluminum rose by 3% during the holiday. The aluminum consumption in September was lackluster. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the feedback in the peak season and the resistance at the March high [5] - Alumina: The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, with obvious supply surplus and weak prices, approaching the low of 2,800 yuan in June [6] - Zinc: The outer - market zinc price rose during the holiday and then fell back. The domestic zinc market has a pattern of oversupply, and the export window may open. LME zinc is expected to fluctuate between $2,850 - $3,050, and Shanghai zinc between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [8] - Lead: LME lead continued to consolidate at a low level during the holiday. Shanghai lead may consolidate at a low level in the short term after the holiday but is expected to rebound at 16,500 yuan at the end of the year [9] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: LME nickel rose slightly during the holiday, but the oversupply tendency restricts its upward space. It is mainly in a short - term shock [10] - Tin: LME tin fell for three consecutive days but still rose by 3% during the holiday. Shanghai tin may jump to 280,000 - 285,000 yuan after the holiday, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [10] - Carbonate Lithium: The carbonate lithium market changed little during the holiday. The futures price may rebound slightly after low - level consolidation [11] Chemicals - Polysilicon: The polysilicon futures market sentiment is returning to rationality. There is still a risk of inventory accumulation, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate [12] - Industrial Silicon: The spot price of industrial silicon is firm, but the upward space is restricted. It is mainly in a short - term shock [13] - Urea: The urea price was stable with a slight decline during the holiday. India announced a new tender, and attention should be paid to domestic export policies [23] - Methanol: The methanol import volume is expected to remain high, and the port is likely to continue to accumulate inventory. The near - term market is weak, while the long - term is expected to be strong [23] - Pure Benzene: The pure benzene plant restarted before the holiday, and the processing margin oscillated at a low level. The overseas oil price decline and expected demand fall drag down the market [24] - Styrene: The oil price during the holiday had little impact on styrene. The supply - demand fundamentals are weak, with high inventory and a bearish market pattern [25] - Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene: Propylene prices may rise after the holiday. The polyolefin market is under pressure due to weak demand and new - capacity release [26] - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC has a pattern of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, and may fluctuate weakly. Caustic soda supply is high, but the future demand may increase [27] - PX & PTA: The weak oil price during the holiday dragged down polyester products. PX is expected to be under pressure, and PTA may repair its profit. The long - term supply - demand is still under pressure [28] - Ethylene Glycol: The port inventory of ethylene glycol increased slightly during the holiday. The short - term demand is okay, but the medium - term supply - demand will weaken [29] - Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip: The short - fiber industry is expected to be boosted by the peak - season demand. The bottle - chip industry has new - capacity expectations, and attention should be paid to its load changes [30] Building Materials - Glass: The glass price was stable during the holiday, with seasonal inventory accumulation. The daily melting is at a relatively high level, and the market may be weak if capacity reduction does not occur [31] - 20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber: The rubber futures prices fluctuated sharply during the holiday. The supply pressure is high, and the inventory is difficult to reduce. It is advisable to wait and see [32] - Soda Ash: Soda ash inventory decreased before the holiday. The long - term supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and short - selling at high prices can be considered [33] Agricultural Products - Soybean & Soybean Meal: The US soybean inventory is lower than expected. Argentina cancelled the tax - exemption policy. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient in the fourth quarter but may be tight in the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to wait and see for soybean meal [34] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The US soybean market faces supply and demand challenges. The palm oil market is expected to reduce inventory in the fourth quarter. Mid - term, the soybean and palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [35] - Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil: The international rapeseed price changed little during the holiday. The domestic rapeseed inventory is tight, but Australian rapeseed will arrive in November. Rapeseed oil demand is expected to increase in the fourth quarter [35] - Soybean No. 1: The domestic new - season soybean price is under pressure. The US soybean market needs to face export tests [36] - Corn: The autumn harvest progress in the Huanghuai region is slow, and the northeast corn price fell during the holiday. It is advisable to take a short - selling approach for now [37] - Pig: The pig price dropped sharply during the holiday. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is in the off - season. The industry is in a loss, and attention should be paid to the de - capacity process [38] - Egg: The egg price dropped significantly during the holiday. The supply is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to continue to decline [39] - Cotton: The US cotton price fell during the holiday. The domestic new cotton acquisition is in full swing, and attention should be paid to whether Zhengzhou cotton can stabilize [40] - Sugar: The US sugar price fluctuated during the holiday. The domestic market focuses on the next - season's production estimate, and the Guangxi sugar production is expected to be good [41] - Apple: The apple futures price oscillates. The new - season cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected, and a short - selling approach is recommended [42] - Timber: The timber futures price oscillates. The supply is low, the demand is showing, and the inventory pressure is small. A long - buying approach is recommended [43] - Pulp: The pulp futures price fell before the holiday. The port inventory is relatively high, and the demand is general. It is advisable to wait and see [44] Financial Products - Stock Index: The stock index showed a strong - oscillating trend before the holiday. During the holiday, the global risk preference was not significantly suppressed, and the stock index is expected to continue to be strong - oscillating [45] - Treasury Bond: The treasury bond futures oscillated flat. The overseas treasury bond market performed poorly. The domestic bond market is in an oscillating range, and attention should be paid to the curve - steepening entry opportunity [46] Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): The container shipping market was weak before the festival. The SCFIS European index continued to decline, and the far - month contracts are under pressure from the supply - surplus expectation. Attention should be paid to the airlines' price - increase implementation [19]