能源化策略：原油延续动荡格局，化?以对冲套利为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry - wide investment rating. However, it offers individual outlooks for each energy and chemical product, which can be summarized as follows based on the rating standard: - Oscillating: PX, PTA, short - fiber, polyester bottle - chips, methanol, urea, LLDPE, PP, PL, PVC, caustic soda [11][12][18][19][22][25][26][27][29] - Oscillating Weakly: crude oil, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, pure benzene, styrene, ethylene glycol [6][7][9][10][13][14][16] 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil price is in a volatile pattern during the National Day holiday. OPEC+ continues to increase production, and geopolitical factors still cause disruptions. The rebound space of crude oil is limited due to the weakening crack spread of refined oil [1][2]. - The prices of basic chemical products changed little during the National Day holiday. The industrial chain lacks a clear trend due to the volatile crude oil and the low valuation of chemicals. Investors can try positive spreads for severely loss - making products [2]. - Different energy and chemical products have different market trends. For example, asphalt prices are under pressure due to the expected increase in production; high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils follow the trend of crude oil; methanol shows a slight inventory build - up during the holiday and oscillates [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Crude Oil - Market News: EIA raises the 2025 and 2026 US oil production forecasts. OPEC+ eight oil - producing countries will further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. There are ongoing conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, and the Hamas reaches an agreement to end the Gaza war [6]. - Main Logic: During the holiday, oil prices first fell and then rose. OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the supply surplus pressure remains. The conflict between Palestine and Israel eases, and the geopolitical disturbances are mainly from the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The US commercial crude oil inventory and production increase, and the refinery operating rate rises. If geopolitical disturbances weaken, the oil price center may move down [7]. 3.2 Situation of Other Energy and Chemical Products - Asphalt: The expected increase in production puts pressure on asphalt futures prices. The geopolitical premium declines, and the supply tension eases. The asphalt price is over - valued compared to other products [9]. - High - sulfur Fuel Oil: The premium turns negative, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand has some improvement, but the major drivers are weakening [10]. - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: It oscillates weakly following crude oil. It faces pressure at the 3500 level, and there are supply and demand challenges [10]. - Methanol: The inventory slightly accumulates during the holiday. The inland inventory pressure is limited, but the port inventory pressure is high. There may be short - term low - buying opportunities [22]. - Urea: The supply - demand pattern is loose. The impact of the Indian tender during the holiday is limited, and the short - term fundamentals are weak. The market may oscillate and wait for policy adjustments and the progress of autumn sowing [23]. - PX: The supply increases while the demand is weak, and the processing fee is under pressure. The inventory is expected to accumulate slightly in November and December [11]. - PTA: The cost side stabilizes, and attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream production cuts. The mid - term inventory accumulation is expected [12]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply pressure is large during the National Day due to smooth device restarts. The port arrival volume increases, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [16]. - Short - fiber: The cost guidance and self - supply - demand drive are limited. The inventory and profit remain within a certain range [18]. - Polyester Bottle - chips: Attention should be paid to whether factories strictly follow the production - cut plan after profit repair. The processing fee expansion space is limited [19]. - Styrene: The cost support gradually appears, but the high inventory of upstream and downstream is difficult to reduce. The profit is at a low level, and one can try to widen the profit [15]. - LLDPE: There are geopolitical disturbances during the holiday. The impact of oil prices on the opening of polyolefins is limited. The fundamental support is weak, and it is advisable to hold short positions [25]. - PP: OPEC+ increases production, and oil prices fluctuate widely during the holiday. The supply side has an incremental trend, and the inventory pressure exists. It oscillates in the short term [26]. - PL: Some devices stop during the holiday, and the market trading atmosphere is cautious. The volatility may increase [27]. - PVC: The fundamental pressure exists. The upstream production is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is stable. The cost change is expected to be small [29]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price is weak, and the futures price may continue to be weak. Attention should be paid to downstream stocking and upstream production changes [29]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - Inter - period Spread: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent M1 - M2 at 0.37 with a change of 0.07, and PX 1 - 5 months at - 40 with a change of - 8 [31]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Each product has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities. For example, the basis of asphalt is 76 with a change of 42, and the warehouse receipt is 44,430 [32]. - Inter - variety Spread: There are different inter - variety spread values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA at - 132 with a change of 42, and 1 - month TA - EG at 387 with a change of - 41 [34]. 3.4 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of commodities is 2224.82, down 0.46%; the commodity 20 index is 2499.78, down 0.42%; the industrial products index is 2219.36, down 0.85% [276]. - The energy index on September 30, 2025, is 1199.36, with a daily decline of 2.25%, a 5 - day decline of 0.27%, a 1 - month decline of 1.59%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.33% [278].