宏观动态跟踪报告：国庆假期中国经济图景

Travel Trends - During the National Day holiday, the average daily cross-regional passenger flow reached 305 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.0% compared to 2024, slightly lower than the 7.9% growth during the May Day holiday[4] - Subway passenger volume in four first-tier cities decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, while 20 second-tier cities saw a decline of 2.5%[7] - The Baidu migration index increased by 20% year-on-year, surpassing the 7.5% growth rate observed in September[10] - Daily average inbound and outbound travelers are expected to exceed 2 million, up from 1.871 million last year[11] Consumption Insights - Key retail and catering enterprises reported a 3.3% year-on-year increase in sales during the first four days of the holiday[13] - Major e-commerce platforms saw energy-efficient home appliances grow by 19%, with smart refrigerators and home products increasing by 20.7% and 16.8%, respectively[13] - Movie box office revenue for the first seven days of the holiday was approximately 1.73 billion yuan, down 18.1% from the previous year, with daily average attendance decreasing by 9.8%[14] Real Estate Performance - New home sales in 30 major cities saw a daily average transaction area decline of 12.7% year-on-year during the holiday, contrasting with a 7.7% increase in September[18] - The top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 252.78 billion yuan in September, marking a 0.4% year-on-year increase[18] Freight Dynamics - Port cargo throughput maintained a growth rate of approximately 7.8% year-on-year, with container throughput growing by 6.9%[20] - Highway freight traffic increased by 6.2% year-on-year, while railway freight volume saw a decline to 1.6%[20] Risk Factors - Potential risks include underwhelming growth policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalating geopolitical conflicts[23]