国泰君安期货所长早读-20251009

Report Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - Fed officials have significant differences on interest - rate cuts. Some believe the September cut was unnecessary, and the government shutdown makes economic assessment more difficult [6]. - Stock index futures are expected to oscillate with a slightly bullish bias, but investors should avoid over - aggressiveness. There are factors both favorable and unfavorable to the market [7][8]. - Copper supply disruptions are likely to push up prices due to events like the Indonesian mine accident and supply - side policy adjustments [10]. Summary by Directory Fed Interest - Rate Cut Situation - The Fed decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Most participants emphasized inflation risks, and there were differences on the number of future cuts. The government shutdown has led to data delays, complicating economic assessment [6]. Stock Index Futures - Maintain a moderately bullish view on stock index futures, but avoid over - aggressiveness. The holiday situation is conducive to the continuation of the bullish market, but regulatory risks and the upcoming earnings season should be noted [7][8]. Copper - Supply disruptions, such as the Indonesian Grasberg mine accident, will reduce copper supply. The industry association advocates controlling smelting capacity expansion, and the market expects increased copper demand from AI, which may push up copper prices [10][21][23]. Other Commodities - Precious Metals: Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs, while silver will experience oscillatory adjustments [12][16]. - Base Metals: Each base metal has different trends, such as zinc having support, lead lacking drivers, and tin oscillating within a range [12][24][27]. - Energy and Chemicals: Different energy and chemical products have various trends, including some expected to open high and then fall, and others to oscillate or be weak [12][15]. - Agricultural Products: Agricultural products also show different trends, such as some oscillating weakly and others being slightly bullish [12][15].