突破4000美元关?，关注波动率和美国政府停摆进展

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The price volatility of gold and silver has slightly increased, but the absolute level remains low, and the price has not reached the extreme congestion in April. The short - term upward trend is expected to continue, and the target prices of gold and silver are raised respectively [1][3] - The follow - up focuses on two aspects: the progress of the US government shutdown and the release of non - farm and inflation data after the shutdown ends, which may cause short - term disturbances to the interest rate cut expectations; and the change in price volatility. If the price volatility significantly increases, the risk of price adjustment will also increase [1][3][4] - The upward logic of precious metals in the fourth quarter is smooth. At the beginning of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, liquidity easing is the short - term driver, while debt over - issuance and the contraction of the US dollar credit caused by anti - globalization are the long - term bullish cornerstones of gold, and silver also benefits synchronously [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - In September, the US ADP employment decreased by 32,000, compared with an expected increase of 51,000 and a previous increase of 54,000 [2] - The US September ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, with an expected 49 and a previous 48.7. The new orders index was 48.9, expected 50 and previous 51.4, falling into contraction again after a brief expansion in August. The employment index was 45.3, expected 44.3 and previous 43.8. The price - paid index was 61.9, expected 62.7 and previous 63.7, and has declined for three consecutive months [2] - The US September ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50, expected 51.7 and previous 52. The new orders index dropped to 50.4, almost erasing the previous month's gains. The employment index contracted for the fourth consecutive month, with the contraction rate slowing down. The price - paid index slightly rose to 69.4, one of the highest levels in three years [2] - Takamichi Sanae won the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election on the 4th, becoming the first female president of the Liberal Democratic Party and is expected to be Japan's first female prime minister [2] Price Logic - During the National Day holiday, precious metal prices continued to rise. The US dollar gold officially broke through the 4000 - dollar mark, and the silver price approached 50 dollars. The precious metal sector was the most eye - catching in the market [3] - During the holiday, the US government shut down, and the non - farm data was suspended. The market traded on the idea that "no news is good news", combined with the weak ADP employment and PMI data, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations slightly increased again [3] - Takamichi Sanae's victory in the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election and her right - wing stance increased the risk of geopolitical conflicts in the Asia - Pacific region, further boosting the willingness to allocate gold [3] Outlook - The London gold spot is expected to be in the range of [4000, 4200] dollars per ounce, and the London silver spot is expected to be in the range of [48, 55] dollars per ounce [4] Commodity Index - The comprehensive index was 2224.82, down 0.46%; the commodity 20 index was 2499.78, down 0.42%; the industrial products index was 2219.36, down 0.85% [42] Precious Metal Index - On September 30, 2025, the precious metal index was 3087.93, with a daily increase of 0.57%, a 5 - day increase of 2.70%, a 1 - month increase of 9.05%, and a year - to - date increase of 39.57% [44]