Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to the uncertainty of supply - side policies and the repeated supply expectations, the prices of new energy metals will fluctuate widely. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, especially for polysilicon, which may lead to a higher price center. The increasing production capacity of lithium ore will limit the upside potential of lithium prices [1]. - For industrial silicon, the price fluctuates due to the changes in coal prices and the resumption of production in the northwest region. For polysilicon, the price has high volatility because of the repeated policy expectations. For lithium carbonate, after the end of the production suspension expectation, the price returns to a pressured and volatile state [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - Industrial Silicon - Viewpoint: The price of industrial silicon fluctuates due to the changes in coal prices and the resumption of production in the northwest region. The medium - term outlook is "oscillation" [6]. - Information Analysis: As of September 2025, the monthly production of domestic industrial silicon was 421,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. The cumulative production from January to September was 3.017 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.3%. The latest domestic inventory was 445,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. In August, the export volume was 76,642 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. The cumulative export from January to August was 491,353 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in August was 7.36GW, a month - on - month decrease of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 55.3%. The cumulative new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to August was 230.6GW, a year - on - year increase of 64.7% [6]. - Main Logic: Recently, the repeated coal prices affect the cost support of industrial silicon, and the resumption of production of large factories in the northwest has slowed down, so the silicon price continues to oscillate. In September, the supply of industrial silicon increased significantly. The supply is expected to decline in the dry season in the southwest at the end of October, and the overall supply is still affected by the production rhythm and scale in the northwest. The demand has slightly improved, and the inventory is relatively stable [6]. - Outlook: The silicon price declined due to the loosening of coal prices before the holiday. Recently, the resumption of production of large factories has slowed down, and the price of industrial silicon shows short - term oscillation. The resumption of production of large factories in the northwest needs to be continuously monitored [6]. - Polysilicon - Viewpoint: Due to the repeated policy expectations, the price of polysilicon continues to have high volatility. The medium - term outlook is "oscillation" [7]. - Information Analysis: The成交 price range of N - type re - feedstock was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 140 to 8,090. In August, the export volume was about 2,992 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.9%, and the cumulative export from January to August was 16,517 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 25.3%. In August, the import volume was about 1,005.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 77.81%, and the cumulative import from January to August was 13,385 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.59%. The cumulative new domestic photovoltaic installed capacity from January to August was 230.61GW, a year - on - year increase of 65% [7]. - Main Logic: From the perspective of supply fundamentals, the production of polysilicon in August has recovered to over 130,000 tons and is expected to remain high in September. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the anti - involution policy will limit the supply of polysilicon. On the demand side, the photovoltaic installation growth rate increased significantly from January to May, but it also overdrawn the installation demand in the second half of the year. The subsequent demand for polysilicon may continue to weaken. Overall, the supply - demand situation of polysilicon still has pressure, and the price fluctuation increases [8][9]. - Outlook: The anti - involution policy has a significant impact on the polysilicon price. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy. If the policy expectation fades, the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction [9]. - Lithium Carbonate - Viewpoint: After the end of the production suspension expectation, the price of lithium carbonate returns to a pressured and volatile state. The medium - term outlook is "oscillation" [9][10]. - Information Analysis: On September 30, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 1.52% to 72,800 yuan/ton, and the total position decreased by 19,893 lots to 676,349 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 73,550 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 71,300 yuan/ton. The average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) was 858 US dollars/ton, remaining unchanged. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 590 to 41,709 lots. In September 2025, the monthly production of domestic lithium carbonate was 87,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 52% [9][10]. - Main Logic: Currently, the market has strong supply and demand. After the successful submission of the reserve report on September 30, the price may be under pressure and oscillate. Although there is a supply - demand gap, it is less than expected. The production in September increased significantly, and the production in October is expected to reach 90,000 tons. The market generally expects no more production suspensions. The import of lithium carbonate may increase in the future. The apparent demand is strong, and the social inventory is decreasing, but the total inventory is still large. The number of warehouse receipts is gradually recovering, which suppresses the price. Overall, the domestic supply - demand gap is not obvious, and the supply has great elasticity, so the price is under long - term pressure [10]. - Outlook: In the short term, the supply - demand shows a tight balance, and the expectation of future oversupply and supply recovery suppresses the price. It is expected that the price will mainly oscillate in the short term [10][11]. 3.2行情监测 - Industrial Silicon: No specific content is provided in the given text. - Polysilicon: No specific content is provided in the given text. - Lithium Carbonate: No specific content is provided in the given text.
供给端政策仍有待明朗
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-10-09 02:20