股市?势积极，债市短期震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a positive trend after the holiday, the bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and the strategy of shorting volatility in index options can be appropriately adopted [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Trends and Strategies Stock Index Futures - After - holiday trend is positive. During the holiday, the offshore Hong Kong market first rose and then declined, with semiconductor, electrical equipment, and price - increase chains leading the gains, which is beneficial to the anti - involution and dual - innovation styles in the A - share market. The weakening of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the week may be related to the US dollar index, but the weak - dollar assumption remains unchanged. The positive factors for the post - holiday A - share market include positive expectations for the 15th Five - Year Plan, large - scale technology stocks outperforming the market, and pre - holiday resting funds likely to re - enter the market. Under the dominance of domestic institutional investors, the dual - innovation sector is expected to outperform, followed by CSI 1000 and CSI 2000. The operation suggestion is to hold IM contracts [1][7] Stock Index Options - The strategy of shorting volatility can be appropriately adopted. Before the holiday, the option strategy was defensive for equity positions. After the holiday, as the market stabilizes and the previous long - option positions are closed, the implied volatility of options is likely to decline naturally, so shorting volatility is recommended this week [2][7] Bond Index Futures - The bond market is expected to be volatile and cautious in the short - term. On September 30, the main contracts of bond index futures rose collectively. The central bank's reverse repurchase net withdrawal on the 30th tightened the overnight capital market. The slightly better - than - expected September manufacturing PMI, the central bank's plan to conduct a 1.1 - trillion 3 - month outright reverse repurchase on October 9, and some trading desks' net buying of spot bonds contributed to the positive sentiment in the bond market. During the National Day holiday, new policies and consumption data emerged. In the short - term, factors such as fund fee reform and the stock - bond seesaw may continue to affect the bond market. The central bank's stance on policies implies that reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may need to wait. In a volatile market, long - term bonds have greater fluctuations, and long - term arbitrage opportunities are recommended. The yield curve may continue to steepen. Operation suggestions include a cautious trend strategy, paying attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels, long - term arbitrage opportunities, and curve steepening [3][7][9] 2. Economic Calendar - The economic data released this week include China's September official manufacturing PMI (49.8, slightly exceeding expectations), the US September ISM manufacturing PMI (49.1), and China's September foreign exchange reserves (33386.58 billion US dollars, an increase of 165 billion US dollars from the end of August) [10] 3. Important Information and News Tracking US Macroeconomics - The US government shutdown continues, but Goldman Sachs believes it is unlikely to last beyond October 15. The two - party dispute focuses on the medical subsidy bill expiring on November 1, and if Trump shows willingness to discuss health issues, the Democrats may agree to a short - term reopening of the government [11] Domestic Macroeconomics - China's foreign exchange reserves at the end of September were 33386.58 billion US dollars, an increase of 165 billion US dollars from the end of August, and gold reserves increased by 40,000 ounces to 74.06 million ounces, with 11 consecutive months of increases. The increase in foreign exchange reserves is due to factors such as exchange rate conversion and asset price changes, and China's stable economic development is conducive to maintaining the stability of foreign exchange reserves [11] Precious Metals - On October 7, the New York gold futures price hit a record high of over 4000 US dollars per ounce, and the London spot gold price also exceeded 3990 US dollars per ounce. Factors such as the US fiscal deficit, geopolitical conflicts, central bank gold - buying, and Fed rate - cut expectations have driven the rise. Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to 4900 US dollars per ounce [12] Real Estate - In the first three quarters of 2025, the financing scale of real - estate enterprises was 307.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 30%. The financing scale in the third quarter was 114.5 billion yuan, a 5% increase from the previous quarter but a 35% decrease year - on - year, remaining at a historical low. Most private real - estate enterprises, especially troubled ones, still face significant financing difficulties [12] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring No specific monitoring data content is provided in the given text for detailed summary.