多晶硅：预期与现实的再博弈

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The impact of policy expectations on the polycrystalline silicon market currently outweighs the fundamental reality. However, as some policy nodes for capacity integration have passed without definite implementation, and there are still obstacles in price transmission at the terminal, a phased re - game between expectations and reality may begin. In the short term, prices are constrained by high inventory and weak demand, while in the medium term, the situation depends on the implementation of capacity integration policies [1][5][20]. 3) Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Expectations - Energy Consumption Standards: On September 16, 2025, the National Standardization Administration Committee issued the "Energy Consumption Quotas per Unit Product of Polysilicon and Germanium (Draft for Comment)", marking the substantial strengthening of energy consumption supervision. The new standard tightens the upper limit of the comprehensive energy consumption of rod - shaped silicon from the current 10.5 kgce/kg to 6.4 kgce/kg, and the comprehensive energy consumption standard for granular silicon is 3.6 - 5.0 kgce/kg. After the adjustment of the existing capacity structure, China's effective polysilicon capacity will drop to about 2.4 million tons/year, a decrease of 16.4% compared to the end of 2024 and 31.4% compared to the installed capacity. But the policy is still in the comment - soliciting stage, and its short - term impact on capacity is limited [6]. - Capacity Integration: Although listed silicon material companies have planned to use funds for supply - side reform and capacity adjustment, the "capacity integration policy" has not been clearly issued. In the short term, it is not enough to change the supply - demand pattern, and its marginal effect is weakening [10][13]. Industry Reality - Price Transmission and Demand: In September, the spot price of polysilicon continued to rise, and the basis changed from the futures premium to the spot premium. The profit of silicon material producers has improved, but the price increase at the downstream terminal component level is not smooth due to weak domestic demand and overseas order adjustments. From January to August 2025, the newly - added domestic photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 65% year - on - year, but in August, it decreased by 55% year - on - year [14]. - Supply - Demand Balance in October: In October, the supply of polysilicon is expected to increase as some enterprises in Qinghai resume production and new capacity ramps up, while downstream silicon wafer production may decrease due to quota restrictions. The inventory pressure remains, and the total industry inventory is estimated to be about 450,000 tons [15]. Registered Warehouse Receipts In the fourth quarter, the polysilicon futures market faces the pressure of concentrated warehouse receipt cancellation and delivery. According to the rules of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, at least 20,000 tons of warehouse receipts will be affected by cancellation, putting pressure on the price of the 2511 contract [19]. Short - Term and Medium - Term Outlook - Short - Term: In the short term, the polysilicon futures price is expected to be weak in October due to warehouse receipt cancellation, inventory backlog, and lower downstream production. The support level for the 2511 contract is estimated at 48,000 yuan/ton [20]. - Medium - Term: In the medium term, the report is not overly pessimistic about the capacity integration policy but remains patient about its implementation method and time, regarding short - term price fluctuations as technical corrections [20].