宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025年10月9日）-20251009

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term trends of domestic soybean and palm oil futures are mainly in a volatile state, with an intraday view of being volatile and strong. The market is affected by multiple factors such as international trade, production, inventory, and policy [5][7] Summary by Variety 1. Soybean Meal (M) - Price Trend: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and strong; Reference view: volatile and strong [5][6] - Core Logic: The two key variables in the market are the shipping speed of Brazilian soybeans and the progress of Sino - US agricultural trade consultations. In the short term, the prices of domestic and foreign soybean futures show differentiation. After the National Day holiday, the domestic soybean market may continue the pre - holiday trading logic and remain in a volatile pattern. The suspension of the US agricultural report during the holiday has weakened the impact of US soybean futures on the domestic market [5] 2. Palm Oil (P) - Price Trend: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and strong; Reference view: volatile and strong [6][7] - Core Logic: The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release monthly data on October 10. Analysts expect the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of September to be 2.15 million tons, a 2.5% month - on - month decrease. As the palm oil production in Southeast Asia declines from the seasonal peak and demand is boosted by festivals, inventory pressure may ease. However, the weakening of international crude oil prices during the holiday has reduced the support for palm oil's biodiesel demand. After the holiday, the short - term palm oil futures price is expected to be volatile and strong [7] 3. Soybean Oil (Y) - Price Trend: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and strong; Reference view: volatile and strong [6] - Core Logic: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]