宝城期货原油早报-20251009

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2511 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term weak oscillation, medium - term oscillation, and an intraday decline [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Contents a. Price Movement and View Classification - For price movement calculation, for varieties with night trading, the night - trading closing price is the starting price; for those without, the previous day's closing price is used. The daily daytime closing price is the end price to calculate the rise - fall range [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is weak oscillation, a rise of 0 - 1% is strong oscillation, and a rise greater than 1% is an increase. Strong/weak oscillation only applies to intraday views, not short - and medium - term views [3][4]. b. Crude Oil Market Analysis - Core logic: During the National Day holiday, the unexpected shutdown of the US federal government led to a significant increase in global financial market risk - aversion sentiment. Gold futures strengthened, and other commodities were generally under pressure. Eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, increasing the supply pressure in the oil market. Although eight foreign ministers called for an end to the Gaza war, Israel's combat state remains unchanged. The US WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices dropped by about 1% during the holiday. With geopolitical premium support weaker than systematic risks, the domestic crude oil 2511 contract is expected to show a weakly oscillating trend on the first trading day after the holiday [5].