2025开发房企中报综述：行业亏损近千亿，保流动性仍将是主要工作

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development industry [5][45]. Core Insights - The real estate development sector has faced significant challenges, with overall revenue shrinking and continued losses reported in 2025. The industry recorded a total revenue of 1.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.9%, and a net profit loss of 867 billion yuan, reflecting a 157.2% decline [1][11]. - The industry is expected to continue facing pressure on sales and profitability, with a notable decline in cash reserves, indicating that maintaining liquidity will be a primary focus for most companies [4][29]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, 168 real estate companies reported a total revenue of 1.54 trillion yuan, down 14.9% year-on-year. The net profit was -867 billion yuan, a decline of 157.2%, and the attributable net profit was -973 billion yuan, down 93.6% [1][11]. - The overall gross margin for the industry was 17.0%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, while the attributable net profit margin was -6.3%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points [1][11]. Sales and Settlement Trends - The sales scale peaked in 2021, with revenue expected to have peaked around 2023-2024. The decline in revenue is attributed to delayed deliveries affecting revenue recognition [2][12]. - The industry is experiencing a shift towards increased sales of completed properties, which is impacting revenue recognition in the current reporting period [2][12]. Inventory and Cash Flow - As of mid-2025, the total inventory for the 168 companies was 9.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 15.7% year-on-year. Pre-receivable accounts and contract liabilities also fell to 2.9 trillion yuan, down 28.0% [3][23]. - The cash reserves of these companies decreased to 1.5 trillion yuan, a decline of 5.7% compared to the previous year, indicating ongoing liquidity challenges [4][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks due to anticipated policy support and the potential for recovery in the sector. Key companies to watch include major state-owned enterprises and select private firms that are expected to benefit from the evolving market dynamics [5][45].