宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025年10月9日）-20251009

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to have a long - term upward trend, with short - term and medium - term increases and an intraday view of being oscillating strongly, driven by the start of interest rate cuts and intensified geopolitical situations [1][3] - Copper is expected to maintain a long - term upward trend, with short - term, medium - term and intraday increases, due to a macro - loose background, renewed mining end disturbances and a rapid rise in capital attention [1][5] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - Price Performance: During the 2025 National Day holiday (October 1 - 8), international gold prices continuously rose. New York gold futures and London gold broke through the $4000/ounce key psychological level, with a holiday increase of over 4% and a year - to - date increase of over 50% [3] - Core Driving Factors: There are three main driving factors. Firstly, the surge in避险需求 is dominated by government shutdown and geopolitical conflicts. The US federal government shutdown since October 1 has raised concerns about US fiscal sustainability and debt credit, and historical data shows that gold has positive returns when the government shutdown exceeds 10 days. Geopolitical events such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict, Middle - East conflicts, Japanese political changes and French prime minister's resignation have also weakened sovereign currency confidence. Secondly, in terms of monetary policy expectations, interest rate cut trading and damaged US dollar credit are at play. Trump's interference in the Fed's independence and rising US debt risks have accelerated the "de - dollarization" trend. Thirdly, there is a structural influx of funds, with central banks and ETFs buying gold together, and the global central bank net gold - buying wave continues [3] Copper - Price Performance: During the National Day holiday, the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price broke through $10500 and reached $10800, hitting a new high for the year [5] - Core Driving Factors: There are three main factors. Supply is tight due to double squeezes at the mining and smelting ends. The major accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia and previous production cuts in Chilean copper mines have tightened the global copper concentrate supply. From a macro and financial perspective, there are expectations of Fed interest rate cuts and a weakening US dollar. The Fed cut interest rates in September, and further cuts are expected, which will boost market risk sentiment and may weaken the US dollar, benefiting copper prices. There is also a link between risk - aversion sentiment and the sector. The US government shutdown and global geopolitical turmoil have driven up the gold price, which has a positive impact on copper. On the demand side, there is demand resilience. In the domestic "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season, the copper product industry's operating rate has rebounded, and grid investment, air - conditioning and motor industries have stable demand. In the long - term, global energy transformation, especially AI computing center construction and grid investment, strongly supports copper demand [5]