政策扰动持续油脂强弱分化

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Soybean Oil: Due to the US government shutdown causing a lack of key data, it's difficult to accurately assess the short - term supply - demand pattern of US soybean oil. Brazil may not raise the biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 16% before March 2026. Indian palm oil imports in September are estimated to drop to a four - month low, while soybean oil imports may reach a three - year high. With reduced international supply disruptions and strong demand, the US soybean oil futures price is oscillating strongly, which boosts domestic prices. However, domestic prices are also affected by domestic soybean costs, so short - term prices will be in a wide - range oscillation [4][40][42]. - Palm Oil: In September, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 7.29 - 9.62% month - on - month. Analysts expect the September - end inventory to be 2.5% lower at 2.15 million tons due to lower production and higher exports. As Southeast Asian production declines from the seasonal peak and demand is boosted by festivals, inventory pressure may ease. But the weakening international crude oil price during the holiday weakens the support for palm oil's biodiesel demand. After the National Day holiday, focus on market capital inflows, and short - term prices will be oscillating strongly [5][42]. - Rapeseed Oil: Recently, the harvest pressure of Canadian rapeseed has increased, and exports are weak. The tight supply still supports prices, and domestic inventories are decreasing. In the short term, low domestic inventories and the end of the aquaculture peak season create a long - short game. Ukraine's export tax - exemption policy for rapeseed during the National Day will affect market sentiment. After the holiday, focus on the resumption of production by domestic processing enterprises, and short - term prices may be volatile [6][43]. Summaries by Directory 1 Market Review 1.1 Three Major Oils' Spot Prices Fluctuate Differently - The spot price of Grade - 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang is 8350 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 9060 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price of imported rapeseed - produced rapeseed oil in Guangdong is 10250 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan week - on - week [10]. 1.2 Rapeseed Oil Futures Prices Continue to Show a Stronger Trend - The futures prices of the three major oils in the domestic market showed different trends this week, with rapeseed oil relatively stronger. In terms of capital, the trading volume of all three major oils increased significantly, while soybean oil and palm oil saw significant position reductions [14]. 2 Malaysian Palm Oil Inventory Expected to Fall, Ukraine's Rapeseed Export Tax - Exemption 2.1 Argentina's Tax - Exemption Policy Ends, US Government Shutdown Halts USDA Reports - After Argentina's brief export tax exemption, there are still 7.6 million tons of soybean products and 8.9 million tons of corn worth $4.93 billion for sale. The government has now restored export taxes, with 24.5% for soybean products and 9.5% for corn. The US government shutdown since October 1st led to the cancellation of the weekly export sales report, and analysts previously expected US soybean net sales to be between 300,000 and 1.5 million tons last week [21]. - An Indian industry insider expects the 2025/26 soybean oil imports to increase by 9% to 5.5 million tons compared to the current year, and palm oil imports may drop to about 7.5 million tons from the 2024/25 estimate of 7.9 million tons [22]. 2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil Inventory Expected to Fall, EU Palm Oil Imports Down Year - on - Year - Due to expected production decline from the seasonal peak and potential increased purchases from India during festivals, Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to drop from a 20 - month high. It's predicted to reach about 1.7 million tons by the end of 2025, a 23% reduction from August. Malaysia's 2025 palm oil exports are expected to reach 17.3 million tons, higher than previous expectations and last year's figure. In 2025, production will not exceed 19.5 million tons [23][24]. - From September 1 - 25, 2025, the palm oil production in South Malaysia decreased by 4.14% month - on - month. In 2025/26, EU palm oil imports are down 25% year - on - year, with Malaysia's share increasing [24]. 2.3 Canadian Rapeseed Harvest Accelerates, Ukraine's Rapeseed Export Tax - Exemption - Nearly three - quarters of Canadian rapeseed has been harvested, with better - than - expected yields. The accelerated harvest increases supply pressure. Ukraine has established a new export mechanism to exempt qualified producers from export tariffs, aiming to resume rapeseed exports [25][26]. 2.4 Inventories of Three Major Oils Continue to Decline - Data on the import costs of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil from different countries and regions are provided, including CBOT closing prices, CNF prices, and import costs in RMB [28][29]. 3 Conclusion - Soybean Oil: The short - term price will oscillate widely due to data shortages, potential Brazilian policy changes, and strong international demand [40][42]. - Palm Oil: Short - term prices will oscillate strongly considering inventory changes, production trends, and international crude oil prices [5][42]. - Rapeseed Oil: Short - term prices may be volatile due to harvest pressure, supply - demand imbalances, and policy impacts [6][43].