Group 1: Sugar (Sector: Agriculture, Livestock) Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Volatile [1] Core View - After the holiday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures may rebound slightly, but there is strong resistance above, and the upside space is limited. The expected good production in major producing countries still suppresses the upward movement of sugar prices. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog - Market Review: Before the holiday, SR601 closed at 5,479 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.02%, and at 5,493 yuan/ton in the night session; SR605 closed at 5,437 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.09%, and at 5,458 yuan/ton in the night session. [1] - Important Information: - The closing price of the ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.32 cents/lb, with a daily decrease of 1.92%; the closing price of the London white sugar main contract was 451.3 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.57%. [1] - The spot transaction price of Guangxi white sugar before the holiday was 5,658 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. [1] - In September, Brazil exported 3,245,837.61 tons of sugar, a year-on-year decrease of 16%. The average daily export volume was 147,538.07 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20%. [1] - In the first half of September, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 15.72% year - on - year to 3.62 million tons. [1] - On September 30, the number of white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 8,968, a daily decrease of 13. [1] - Trading Strategy: Take profit on sugar long positions opportunely and wait for opportunities to short at high prices. [1] Group 2: Red Dates (Sector: Agriculture, Livestock) Report Industry Investment Rating - Red dates: Volatile [3] Core View - Before the large - scale harvest of red dates, the futures market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the game on the opening price of new dates and the trends of long and short funds. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog - Market Review: Before the holiday, CJ601 closed at 10,820 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.87%; CJ605 closed at 10,865 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.87%. [3] - Important Information: - As of September 26, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9,203 tons, a decrease of 44 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%. [3] - Before the holiday, the reference price of special - grade red dates in the Hebei market was 10.5 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg; the price of first - grade red dates was stable. [3] - Before the holiday, 3 trucks of red dates arrived at Guangzhou Ruyifang, the same as the previous day. [3] - Trading Strategy: Treat the CJ601 contract as volatile in the short term, and recommend high - selling and low - buying. In the medium - to - long term, short far - month contracts at high prices. [3] Group 3: Rubber (Sector: Energy, Chemical) Report Industry Investment Rating - Rubber: Volatile and Weak [4] Core View - After the holiday, the domestic rubber futures market is expected to remain weak and volatile. Although there is some support from the heavy rainfall in Thailand, the overseas rubber market does not provide obvious support, and the domestic fundamentals remain unchanged. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalog - Market Review: As of September 30, RU2601 closed at 15,375 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.61%; NR2511 closed at 12,435 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.04%; BR2511 closed at 11,340 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.79%. [4] - Important Information: - In September, the average monthly price of Thai latex was 55.79 Thai baht/kg, a month - on - month increase of 2.33%; the average monthly price of cup lump was 51.46 Thai baht/kg, a month - on - month increase of 4.51%. [4] - In August 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 52.08 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 412.14 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.47%. [4] - As of September 28, 2025, the general trade inventory of natural rubber samples in Qingdao decreased by 0.46 million tons to 38.71 million tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 1.18%. [4] - In September, the average monthly price of Shanghai full - latex was 14,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 367 yuan/ton from the previous month; the average monthly price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao market was 14,966 yuan/ton, an increase of 458 yuan/ton from the previous month. [4] - In September, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises increased month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month increase of 0.96 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.35 percentage points. [4] - Trading Strategy: Hold the previous short positions and wait and see as the rubber fundamentals currently lack positive support. [4]
格林大华期货早盘提示：白糖-20251009
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-10-09 03:14