假期间市场平稳，节后关注政策预期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating", and the short - term prices of various varieties are expected to be mainly in an oscillating state [6]. 2. Core View of the Report - During the long holiday, the spot market of the black building materials industry remained stable. Industry demand was restricted by poor domestic demand and frequent overseas tariffs, but the furnace material side continued to support the prices of sector varieties. In this pattern, it is expected that the prices of sector varieties will mainly oscillate. Attention should be paid to domestic meetings and overseas interest rate cuts to boost market sentiment again [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Industry Situation - During the long holiday, steel and billet prices remained stable. Iron ore swaps and spot prices rose slightly by 0.3 - 1.3%. The first round of coke price increase was implemented, while coking coal, alloy, glass, and soda ash prices remained stable. The demand performance in early October was still lackluster, and frequent overseas tariff disturbances limited the upside potential of post - holiday prices. High hot metal production supported the demand and prices of furnace materials, thus stabilizing steel costs [1]. 3.2 Specific Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Steel - During the holiday, the inventory of steel accumulated too quickly, and the current pressure still existed. The spot market transactions were generally weak, and the prices were basically stable. The output of the five major steel products remained at a relatively high level during the holiday, but the demand shrank significantly, and the inventory accumulation was obvious. Overseas tariff policies were constantly disturbing, but the short - term impact was expected to be limited. Although the current steel inventory was at a moderately high level and the short - term disk was under pressure, there were still expectations for anti - involution policies in the 14th Five - Year Plan, the macro - environment was still warm, and the cost side had certain support, so the downside space of the disk was limited [7]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - During the holiday, the iron ore market was stable, and the overseas market rose slightly. Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, while the port arrivals increased. The demand for iron ore was supported by high hot metal production, and some steel mills had restocking plans after the holiday. The inventory pressure was not prominent. However, the general performance of the building materials peak - season demand limited the upside space of iron ore. It is expected that the short - term price will oscillate [8][9]. 3.2.3 Scrap Steel - During the holiday, the supply and demand of scrap steel were stable, and the spot price fell slightly. After the steel enterprises completed pre - holiday restocking, the spot price decreased. The current pressure on finished product prices led to a contraction in electric furnace profits. It is expected that the short - term price will follow the finished products [10]. 3.2.4 Coke - During the holiday, the coke price increase was implemented, and the supply and demand decreased slightly. The profitability of coking enterprises improved slightly, but the high raw coal price still restricted the overall start - up. The demand was supported by high hot metal production. The upstream inventory was still at a low level. It is expected that the post - holiday price will remain oscillating [11]. 3.2.5 Coking Coal - During the holiday, some coking coal mines were on holiday, and the market operated stably. After the holiday, coal mine production will recover quickly, and Mongolian coal imports will also reach a high level. The overall supply is expected to increase, but the increase will be restricted. The demand for coking coal will remain high in the short term. Overall, the fundamental contradiction of coking coal is not prominent, and the price is expected to remain oscillating [11][12]. 3.2.6 Glass - During the holiday, the glass production and sales were weak, and manufacturers tried to raise prices to boost sentiment. A large amount of inventory was accumulated during the National Day. If the post - holiday price increase fails to stimulate restocking sentiment, the fundamental logic may suppress the futures and spot prices again. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [12][13]. 3.2.7 Soda Ash - During the holiday, soda ash was expected to accumulate inventory, and the fundamental supply - demand situation changed little. The supply - surplus pattern remained unchanged. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely following macro - changes. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. 3.2.8 Manganese Silicon - During the holiday, the manganese silicon market remained stable, and the pessimistic supply - demand situation suppressed the price. In the short - term, high production costs and peak - season demand expectations supported the price, but the market supply - demand expectation was pessimistic, and there was still downward pressure on the price center after the peak season [2][16]. 3.2.9 Silicon Iron - During the holiday, the silicon iron market operated stably, and the loose supply - demand situation pressured the price. In the short - term, peak - season expectations and firm costs supported the price, but the market supply - demand relationship was becoming looser, and there was still downward pressure on the price after the peak season [2][17]. 3.3 Other Information - The report also provides basis seasonal charts for steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, silicon iron, silicon manganese, glass, and soda ash, as well as profit seasonal charts and steel daily trading volume data. In addition, it shows the performance of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index and the steel industry chain index [19][20][61][81].