橡胶周报：多空因素纷扰，橡胶偏弱运行-20251009

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Before the National Day holiday, domestic rubber futures were affected by a weak supply - demand structure and weakening macro - sentiment, leading to a downward trend in rubber prices. During the holiday, the US federal government shutdown increased global financial market risk aversion, and although Typhoon "Medom" might bring a production - cut expectation, the industry's positive outlook could not counter the macro - bearish sentiment. After the holiday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 continued its weak trend, and it is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [6][55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Spot price and basis: In the week of September 30, 2025, the spot price of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned full - latex (SCRWF) oscillated around 14,300 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis between the spot and the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract was at a discount of 730 yuan/ton, with the degree of discount slightly narrowing [10]. - Futures price: In the two trading days before the holiday, the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 dropped 2.84% to 15,030 yuan/ton; the standard rubber futures contract 2512 fell 2.81% to 12,100 yuan/ton; and the synthetic rubber futures contract 2512 declined 2.63% to 11,110 yuan/ton [6][15]. 3.2 2025 Third - Quarter Global Rubber Market Supply - Demand Improvement - Southeast Asian producers: In August 2025, ANRPC member countries produced 107.87 million tons of rubber, a month - on - month increase of 1.05 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.02 million tons (1.84% decline). From January to August 2025, the total production was 685.36 million tons, a 0.96% increase from the same period last year. Consumption in August was 89.99 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.71 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 4.42 million tons (4.68% decline). From January to August, total consumption was 717.51 million tons, a 3.60% decrease from the same period last year. In export, Thailand and Indonesia had significant year - on - year increases in the January - August period, while Malaysia and Vietnam had slight decreases [25][29]. - China's imports: In August 2025, China imported 66.4 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a 7.8% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the total import was 537.3 million tons, a 19.03% increase from the same period last year [33]. - Domestic tire market: In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 102.954 million pieces, a 9.1% month - on - month and 1.5% year - on - year increase. Semi - steel tire production was about 58.06 million pieces, and full - steel tire production was about 13.03 million pieces. Tire exports were strong, with semi - steel tire exports reaching 325,900 tons, a record high. From January to August, China's rubber tire exports were 6.5 million tons, a 5.1% year - on - year increase. As of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a 0.10 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a 0.03 - percentage - point week - on - week increase [36][37]. - Domestic auto market: In August 2025, China's auto production and sales were 2.815 million and 2.857 million vehicles respectively, a 13% and 16.4% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles, a 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year increase. In the new - energy vehicle sector, production and sales in August were 1.391 million and 1.395 million vehicles respectively, a 27.4% and 26.8% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, the auto dealer inventory warning index was 54.5%, up 0.5 percentage points year - on - year and down 2.5 percentage points month - on - month. The logistics industry index in September was 56.1%, a record high. In August, the heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 35% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative sales in the first 8 months were 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [40][41]. - Inventory: As of the week of September 30, 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures inventory decreased by 3,613 tons week - on - week, while the registered warehouse receipts increased by 390 tons. As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 456,500 tons, a 1.01% decrease from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory remained flat, and the general - trade inventory decreased by 1.18% [53]. 3.3 Conclusion - After the National Day holiday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 continued its weak trend, with an obvious short - term moving - average trend. It is expected that the contract will maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [55].