中辉有色观点-20251009

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★ [1] - Silver: ★★ [1] - Copper: ★★ [1] - Zinc: ★ [1] - Lead: ★ [1] - Tin: ★★ [1] - Aluminum: ★★ [1] - Nickel: ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★ [1] Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are expected to benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring in the long term, but short - term technical overbought risks should be guarded against [1][3][4] - Copper is a strategic resource in Sino - US competition and a substitute for precious metals, and is long - term bullish under the background of tight copper concentrate supply and booming green copper demand [1][9] - Zinc supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, short - term upside is limited, and it is a short - side allocation in the medium - to - long term [1][12] - Aluminum prices are expected to be strong, and short - term long positions can be considered [1][16] - Nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be on the sidelines for now, waiting for downstream consumption improvement [1][20] - Lithium carbonate prices are in a wide - range oscillation, and long positions should take profits in a timely manner [1][24] Summary by Variety Gold - Market Performance: During the National Day holiday, the overseas gold market was strong, with spot gold breaking through $4,000 per ounce, and COMEX gold rising 4.45%. Domestic gold may challenge the 910 position [2][4] - Driving Factors: US government shutdown, weak economic data, French political turmoil, Japanese leadership change, and central bank gold - buying behavior contribute to the rise [3] - Strategy: Long - term positions should be held, and short - term positions can be deployed on dips [4] Silver - Market Performance: It follows the sharp fluctuations of gold and copper markets, with short - term high sentiment. Domestic silver may challenge the 11,300 position [1][4] - Driving Factors: Global policy stimulus, strong demand, and obvious supply - demand gap support long - term bullishness [1] - Strategy: Short - term long positions can be tried, and long - term positions should be held [1] Copper - Market Performance: During the National Day holiday, LME copper hit a new high of $10,802.5 per ton, and SHFE copper may open higher [6][8] - Driving Factors: US government shutdown, weak employment data, Fed rate - cut expectations, weak US dollar, geopolitical risks, and supply disruptions in Indonesian mines [8] - Strategy: Hold existing long positions, and new long positions can be entered after a pull - back. Long - term bullishness is maintained [9] Zinc - Market Performance: LME zinc hit a new high during the holiday but then declined. SHFE zinc may rise in the short term but with limited upside [10][11][12] - Driving Factors: Low LME zinc inventory, supply - demand imbalance with increasing supply and decreasing demand in the medium - to - long term [11][12] - Strategy: Short - term sell - hedging can be arranged at high levels, and it is a short - side allocation in the medium - to - long term [12] Aluminum - Market Performance: LME aluminum rose during the holiday, and SHFE aluminum is expected to follow suit [13][14] - Driving Factors: Expected decrease in overseas bauxite arrivals, and support from terminal consumption [15] - Strategy: Short - term long positions can be taken at low levels, paying attention to downstream processing enterprise operations [16] Nickel - Market Performance: LME nickel rose slightly during the holiday, and SHFE nickel may continue to rebound [17][18] - Driving Factors: Overseas political situation has limited impact on nickel supply, and there is a supply - demand divergence within the domestic nickel industry chain [19] - Strategy: Wait and see for now, paying attention to downstream consumption improvement [20] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract LC2511 opened high and closed low, with pre - holiday fluctuations converging [22] - Driving Factors: Increasing production, stable downstream demand, and expected inventory reduction [23] - Strategy: Take profits on long positions in the range of 72,800 - 74,500 [24]