中辉期货豆粕日报-20251009

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Short - term Rebound: Bean meal, rapeseed meal [1] - Short - term Bullish: Palm oil, soybean oil [1] - Stronger Operation: Rapeseed oil [1] - Bearish: Cotton, live pigs [1] - Cautiously Bearish: Red dates [1] Core Views - Bean Meal: Short - term rebound expected due to potential US - China trade talks on soybeans, post - holiday market recovery in China, and dry planting weather in Brazil [1]. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term rebound, with multiple factors in a tug - of - war. It is likely to follow the trend of bean meal as social inventory may decrease during the holiday [1]. - Palm Oil: Short - term bullish. The B50 biodiesel policy in Indonesia and reduced inventory in Malaysia are expected to boost domestic palm oil prices after the holiday [1]. - Soybean Oil: Short - term bullish. Influenced by the US - China trade situation, Brazilian weather, and the palm oil market, it is expected to open higher after the holiday [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Expected to run strongly due to low oil mill operating rates, market sentiment, and the entry into the consumption season [1]. - Cotton: Bearish. Supply pressure from new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere, weak demand, and no significant support from the spot market. Short - term short - allocation of near - month contracts is recommended [1]. - Red Dates: Cautiously bearish. New fruit may face pressure after listing. There may be volatile price movements before November, and short - selling opportunities on price rebounds are recommended [1]. - Live Pigs: Bearish. High supply and expected weakening demand may lead to further decline in futures prices after the holiday. Short - allocation and reverse spreads are recommended [1]. Summary by Variety Bean Meal - Market Data: As of September 26, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 938.5 million tons, up 40.2 million tons week - on - week. 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 719.91 million tons, up 3.63% week - on - week, and bean meal inventory was 118.92 million tons, down 4.86% week - on - week [3]. - Price and Spread: Futures price of the main contract was 2928 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The national average spot price was 3018.57 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - Market Data: As of September 26, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 2.6 million tons, down 2 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.5 million tons, down 0.25 million tons week - on - week [6]. - Price and Spread: Futures price of the main contract was 2421 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The national average spot price was 2581.05 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. Palm Oil - Market Data: As of September 26, 2025, national key region commercial inventory was 55.22 million tons, down 5.62% week - on - week, up 9.16% year - on - year [8]. - Price and Spread: Futures price of the main contract was 9228 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The national average price was 9185 yuan/ton, down 1.18% [7]. Cotton - Market Data: As of a certain period, domestic cotton commercial inventory dropped to 103.15 million tons, lower than the same period last year. Spinning mill operating rates were relatively stable, and weaving mill operating rates declined slightly [9][11]. - Price and Spread: Futures price of the main contract CF2601 was 13215 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The China Cotton Price Index (3128B) dropped 103 yuan/ton during the holiday [9][10]. Red Dates - Market Data: Mysteel estimated new - season production at 56 - 62 million tons. 36 sample enterprises' physical inventory was 9203 tons, down 44 tons week - on - week [15]. - Price and Spread: Futures price of the main contract CJ2601 was 10820 yuan/ton, down 0.87%. Spot prices were generally stable [13]. Live Pigs - Market Data: National sample enterprises' monthly生猪存栏量 was 3782.4 million, up 0.51%, and monthly出栏量 was 1117.72 million, up 2.39% [17]. - Price and Spread: Futures price of the main contract Lh2511 was 12355 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. National average spot price of external ternary pigs dropped to 12.51 yuan/kg during the holiday [17][18].