黄金突破4000美元关?，关注波动率和美国政府停摆进展

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price volatility of gold and silver has slightly increased, but the absolute level remains low, and the price is not as extremely crowded as in April. The short - term upward trend is expected to continue, and the target prices of gold and silver are raised respectively [1][3] - The upward logic of precious metals in the fourth quarter is smooth. The beginning of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and liquidity easing are short - term drivers, while debt over - issuance and the contraction of the US dollar's credit caused by de - globalization are the long - term bullish cornerstones of gold, and silver also benefits synchronously [3] - Focus on the progress of the US government shutdown and the release of non - farm and inflation data after the shutdown ends, and price volatility changes [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary of Key Information Key News - In September, the US ADP employment decreased by 32,000, with an expected increase of 51,000 and a previous increase of 54,000 [2] - The US September ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, the new orders index was 48.9, the employment index was 45.3, and the prices paid index was 61.9 [2] - The US September ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50, the new orders index dropped to 50.4, the employment index contracted for the fourth consecutive month, and the payment price index rose slightly to 69.4 [2] - Takamichi Sanae won the LDP presidential election in Japan and is expected to become Japan's first female prime minister [2][3] Price Logic - During the National Day holiday, precious metal prices continued to rise. Gold broke through the $4000 mark, and silver approached $50. The US government shutdown, weak ADP employment and PMI data increased the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and geopolitical risks boosted gold allocation [3] Outlook - The range of spot gold in London is [4000, 4200] dollars per ounce, and that of spot silver in London is [48, 55] dollars per ounce [4] Index Data - On September 30, 2025, the commodity index was 2224.82 (- 0.46%), the commodity 20 index was 2499.78 (- 0.42%), and the industrial products index was 2219.36 (- 0.85%) [41] - On September 30, 2025, the precious metals index was 3087.93, with a daily increase of 0.57%, a 5 - day increase of 2.70%, a 1 - month increase of 9.05%, and a year - to - date increase of 39.57% [43]