Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the US federal government shutdown during the National Day holiday, international crude oil futures prices declined under pressure. The WTI crude oil futures price dropped from a pre - holiday high of $66.42/barrel to a low of $60.40/barrel, a cumulative decline of 9.06%. The Brent crude oil futures price fell from a pre - holiday high of $70.76/barrel to a low of $64/barrel, a cumulative decline of 9.55%. The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract is expected to face a risk of a gap - down opening after the holiday. With the support of geopolitical premium weaker than systematic risks, the domestic crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend on the first trading day after the holiday [5]. Summary by Directory 1 Market Review 1.1 Spot prices rose slightly and basis discounts widened slightly - As of the week ending September 30, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area was $64.63/barrel, equivalent to RMB 459.2/barrel, a week - on - week increase of $4.7/barrel. The domestic crude oil futures main contract 2511 closed at RMB 479.7/barrel, a week - on - week increase of RMB 6.6/barrel. The basis was RMB 20.5/barrel [9]. 1.2 Systematic risks occurred and international crude oil futures declined - Affected by the US federal government shutdown, during the National Day holiday, international crude oil futures prices declined under pressure. The WTI crude oil futures price dropped from a pre - holiday high of $66.42/barrel to a low of $60.40/barrel, a cumulative decline of 9.06%. The Brent crude oil futures price fell from a pre - holiday high of $70.76/barrel to a low of $64/barrel, a cumulative decline of 9.55%. The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract dropped from a rebound high of RMB 499.2/barrel to below RMB 480/barrel, a cumulative decline of 3.90%. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract may face a risk of a gap - down opening after the holiday [5][12][13]. 2 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Surplus Escalated and the Production Increase Rhythm Accelerated 2.1 OPEC+ accelerated capacity release and the expectation of supply surplus increased - In August 2025, OPEC+ member countries decided to increase production. From April to August 2025, OPEC+ shifted from a production - cut cycle to a production - increase cycle, with a cumulative production increase of 191.9 barrels/day. In August 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 2794.8 barrels/day, a significant month - on - month increase of 47.8 barrels/day and a significant year - on - year increase of 129.6 barrels/day [20][21][22]. 2.2 Non - OPEC oil - producing countries' production capacity remained at a high level - As of the week ending October 3, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 422, a week - on - week decrease of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 57. As of the week ending September 26, 2025, the US crude oil daily production was 1350.5 barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 barrels/day and a year - on - year increase of 30.5 barrels/day [36]. 2.3 The peak season of crude oil demand in the Northern Hemisphere was coming to an end - Entering October, the peak season of gasoline consumption in the US ended, and the demand factor weakened. Different energy institutions had different forecasts for the crude oil market. EIA and IEA were pessimistic about the future oil price, while OPEC was relatively optimistic [41][42][43]. 2.4 US crude oil inventories increased slightly and refinery operating rates decreased slightly - As of the week ending September 26, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories reached 416.5 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.792 million barrels. The refinery operating rate was 91.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points [44]. 2.5 China's crude oil imports increased slightly in August 2025 - In August 2025, China's industrial crude oil production was 18.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. The crude oil processing volume was 63.46 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. The crude oil import volume was 49.492 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.288 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.392 million tons [48]. 3 The Middle East Situation Showed Signs of Easing but Risks Still Existed - During the National Day holiday, eight foreign ministers called for an end to the Gaza war, but Israel said it was a change in the combat situation rather than a cease - fire. The easing of the Middle East situation weakened the support for the crude oil market, and the "war premium" subsided [57][58][59]. 4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Changed Differently Week - on - Week - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts. As of September 30, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 202,480 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 9,903 contracts [62][64]. 5 Conclusion - Affected by the US federal government shutdown and OPEC+ production increase, international crude oil futures prices declined. With the support of geopolitical premium weaker than systematic risks, the domestic crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend on the first trading day after the holiday [70].
原油周报：避险情绪升温，原油偏弱运行-20251009
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-10-09 03:17