Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullishness and buying on dips; Treasury bonds are advised to hold a wait - and - see attitude [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is for buying on dips [1][7][8] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is for buying on dips; Aluminum is for buying on dips after pullbacks; Nickel is for waiting or shorting on rallies; Tin and gold are for buying on dips; Silver is for range trading [1][11][15][18] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol are for sideways movement; Polyolefins are for wide - range oscillations; Soda ash's 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [1][20][22][25][29] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are for a bearish outlook; PTA is for narrow - range oscillations; Apples and jujubes are for sideways movement [1][32][34] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Pigs and eggs are for shorting on rallies; Corn is for wide - range oscillations; Soybean meal is for range oscillations; Oils are for a slight bottom - building rebound [1][37][40][43] Core Views - The A - share market is expected to continue its upward trend in October driven by policies and performance. The "economic weak recovery + loose liquidity + policy dividends" combination limits the market's downside risk in the medium term [5] - The return of the configuration power determines whether the long - term and ultra - long - term interest rates can stabilize in the bond market [5] - The supply and demand of various commodities are affected by factors such as production, consumption, inventory, and policies, resulting in different price trends and investment strategies [1][5][7] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Index Futures: In September, the A - share market showed an upward trend, with technology growth stocks being particularly active. In October, the market is expected to continue rising driven by policies and performance, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - long term [5] - Treasury Bonds: The market fluctuated greatly before the holiday. The return of the configuration power determines the stability of long - term and ultra - long - term interest rates, and it is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] Black Building Materials - Double Coking: During the National Day holiday, some coal mines in Shanxi had short - term production stoppages, and the import of Mongolian coal is expected to increase after the holiday. Coke's first - round price increase was implemented, but the second - round increase failed. It is in a sideways state [7] - Rebar: During the holiday, steel prices were stable or slightly weak. The EU's steel import restrictions and Trump's tariff measures are negative news, but the impact is controllable. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long around 3000 for the RB2601 contract in October [7][8] - Glass: Before the holiday, the glass futures price first fell and then rose. The spot price increase of major glass manufacturers drove the market. The inventory decreased, and it is recommended to buy on dips, with the 2601 contract having a pressure range of 1280 - 1300 and a support range of 1190 - 1200 [8] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has a long - term impact on copper prices, which are expected to be high - level volatile. In the short term, pay attention to changes in domestic and foreign inventories [11] - Aluminum: Alumina supply is relatively loose, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity is increasing steadily. Demand is in the peak season, and it is recommended to hold long positions and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long AD and short AL [12] - Nickel: The price of nickel ore is firm, and the supply of refined nickel is in surplus. The price of nickel iron has limited upside, and stainless steel prices are weak. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [17] - Tin: The closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia has tightened the supply. The semiconductor industry is recovering, and it is recommended to build long positions on dips [18] - Silver and Gold: Affected by factors such as the delay of non - farm data and the risk of the US government shutdown, the prices are expected to continue the strong trend. It is recommended to hold long positions and build new long positions on pullbacks [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The cost is at a low level of profit, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to be in a short - term sideways state, with the 01 contract paying attention to the range of 4700 - 5000 [20] - Caustic Soda: The macro outlook is positive in the long term, the supply inventory is high, and the demand is increasing marginally. It is expected to be in a sideways state, with the 01 contract paying attention to the range of 2450 - 2650 [22] - Styrene: The cost and supply - demand situation are weak, and it is expected to be in a weak sideways state, paying attention to the range of 6700 - 7100 [25] - Rubber: The raw material supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure. After the holiday, the demand is expected to drive the price to repair. Pay attention to the support at 15500 [25] - Urea: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of the 01 contract at 1600 - 1630 and the positive arbitrage opportunity after the 1 - 5 spread weakens [26][27] - Methanol: The supply is recovering, the demand of the main downstream is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The 01 contract is expected to be supported in the short term, paying attention to the range of 2330 - 2450 [27] - Polyolefins: The supply pressure is relieved, the downstream demand has increased, but it is still weak compared with previous years. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate within the range, and the PP main contract is expected to be weakly oscillating [28] - Soda Ash: The supply is abundant, the demand is flat, and the 01 contract is recommended for a short - selling strategy [30][31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply and demand situation has changed, and the short - term market may stabilize, but the long - term pressure is still large, maintaining a bearish outlook in the medium term [32] - PTA: The crude oil price is weak, the cost support is insufficient, and the PTA accumulates inventory. It is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation, paying attention to the range of 4500 - 4750 [32][34] - Apples: Affected by continuous rain, the supply of red apples is delayed, and the current market reference is limited. It is expected to be in a sideways state [34] - Jujubes: During the National Day holiday, the market was flat, and the new - season jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested. It is expected to be in a sideways state [35] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: The supply in October is increasing, the demand is limited, and the pig price is under pressure. In the long - term, the supply before next May is expected to increase, and the price is not optimistic [37] - Eggs: The egg price was weak during the holiday. The supply growth has slowed down, but the pressure still exists. In the short - term, the decline may be limited by replenishment demand, and in the long - term, the price is under pressure [40] - Corn: The new - season corn is on the market, and the price is under pressure. The demand is weakly stable. It is expected to be weakly operating in the short - term and gradually recover in the long - term [40] - Soybean Meal: The domestic supply is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter, and the price is under pressure in October. Pay attention to the support performance of the M2601 contract at 2900 - 2930 [42] - Oils: After the holiday, domestic oils are expected to rise slightly following the external market. The positive arbitrage of the rapeseed - soybean oil price difference can be continued to be concerned [43]
期货市场交易指引：2025年10月09日-20251009
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-10-09 03:48