华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251009

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation, while the price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate, with attention paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [2][4][5] 3) Summary by Related Contents Finished Products - The production of short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region during the Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output, and 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui Province will also have varying degrees of shutdown, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons of output [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is not strong [4] - The finished products are expected to move in a sideways consolidation, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Aluminum Ingots - During the holiday, non - ferrous metals in the external market generally rose, and LME aluminum was strong. The US government shutdown has entered the eighth day, and Fed officials believe that the risks in the US job market have increased enough to support interest rate cuts, but many policymakers are still vigilant about high inflation [3] - In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.14% year - on - year and decreased by 3.18% month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio of domestic electrolytic aluminum plants rebounded slightly. The comprehensive PMI index of aluminum processing increased by 2.4 percentage points to 55.7%. Different sub - sectors showed structural differentiation [4] - On October 9, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 649,000 tons, an increase of 57,000 tons compared with September 29 and an increase of 32,000 tons compared with September 25. The destocking in September was less than expected, and the premium of electrolytic aluminum is expected to face certain pressure in the early post - holiday period. In October, the aluminum - water ratio of some northern enterprises is expected to increase, and the ingot casting volume is expected to remain low, which will support the aluminum price [4] - With the continuous expectation of overseas interest rate cuts, the short - term macro - favorable atmosphere and the stable fundamentals, the price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [4][5]