Huachuang Securities·2025-10-09 04:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the liquor industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [22]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is experiencing a marginal recovery in demand while supply continues to clear out, with expectations of a 20% year-on-year decline in sales during the holiday period [5][6]. - High-end products like Moutai and Wuliangye are showing better turnover, while mid-range products are performing relatively well in certain regions [5]. - The report suggests prioritizing investments in companies with stable performance, those undergoing significant transformation, and those with quality products that are clearing out inventory [5]. Industry Basic Data - The liquor industry consists of 20 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 31,219.12 billion [2]. - The circulating market value stands at 31,214.28 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance of the liquor industry over the past 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -4.0%, -6.4%, and -15.6% respectively [3]. - The relative performance compared to the benchmark index is -7.2% over 1 month, -24.9% over 6 months, and -31.1% over 12 months [3]. Sales Performance Insights - During the holiday period, liquor sales are expected to decline by approximately 20%, aligning with pre-holiday expectations [5]. - High-end gifting demand has improved slightly before the holidays, while mid-range business group purchases are still under pressure [5]. - Regional performance varies, with provinces like Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan showing slightly better-than-expected results [5]. Brand Performance - Moutai and Wuliangye are performing well, while other brands are experiencing significant declines in sales [5][6]. - The report highlights that brands like Gujing and Jiuzi are expected to confirm performance bottoms and drive growth through market share [5]. Channel and Inventory Insights - Channel inventory is slightly decreasing, with supply and demand remaining in a tight balance [5]. - The report anticipates that Q4 will focus on inventory digestion, with price stability expected despite some downward pressure [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with low performance risk, those confirming performance bottoms, and those undergoing deep transformations [5]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Moutai, Fenjiu, and Gujing, with a focus on dividend yield for Wuliangye and monitoring the performance of Laojiao [5].