Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In October, steel prices are expected to be weak first and then strong. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long on rebar RB2601 around 3000. The signal requires continuous inventory reduction of steel products or the emergence of macro - positive news. The decline space of finished products is limited due to low valuation, while raw materials have relatively high valuation and greater downward pressure [3][57]. Summary by Directory 01 Review: Futures Oscillated, Finished Products Weaker than Raw Materials - Black - Spot: In September, black spot prices showed a differentiated trend. Finished products had a reverse N - shaped trend with little change in price month - on - month. Among raw materials, coke prices fell, coking coal rose significantly, scrap steel was stable with a slight upward trend, and iron ore first rose and then fell [8]. - Black - Futures: In September, black futures prices first fell, then rebounded, and then fell again. Finished products were weaker than raw materials. Rebar and hot - rolled coil closed down month - on - month, with hot - rolled coil having a larger decline. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar narrowed. Among raw materials, iron ore and coking coal prices fell by about 1%, and coke prices declined slightly [11]. - Futures Market: In September, precious metal prices rose significantly, while most other commodities prices fell [14]. 02 Outlook: Concerns about October Demand, Fundamentals Still Under Pressure - Overseas Macro: On September 18, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, officially starting a new round of interest - rate cuts. On September 29, Trump announced tariffs on imported softwood logs, lumber, cabinets, etc. The EU plans to impose 25% - 50% tariffs on Chinese steel and related products in the coming weeks [19]. - Domestic Economy: From January to August 2025, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.5% year - on - year, with infrastructure investment growing by 2.0%, manufacturing investment by 5.1%, and real estate development investment falling by 12.9%. Social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.6% year - on - year. The total value of goods imports and exports was 29.5696 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, with exports growing by 6.9% and imports falling by 1.2% [22]. - Demand - Infrastructure: From January to August 2025, the national general public budget revenue increased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 3.1%. The national government - funded budget revenue decreased by 1.4%, and the expenditure increased by 30%. As of the 38th week (9/15 - 9/21), the cumulative net financing of national debt + new local bond issuance was 9.7 trillion, with a progress of 81.9%, exceeding the same period last year. Infrastructure investment growth has been negative for two consecutive months [23]. - Demand - Real Estate: From January to August 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, housing construction area decreased by 9.3%, new housing construction area decreased by 19.5%, commercial housing sales area decreased by 4.7%, and housing completion area decreased by 17% [26]. - Demand - Manufacturing: From January to August 2025, manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was - 1.3%, and in July it was - 0.3%, contracting for two consecutive months. In September 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [33]. - Demand - Import and Export: From January to August 2025, China exported 77.49 million tons of steel, a year - on - year increase of 10%, and imported 3.98 million tons of steel, a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%. The net steel export was 73.51 million tons, an increase of 7.56 million tons or 11.5%. Steel billet exports were 9.24 million tons, an increase of 6.88 million tons or 292% [37]. - Supply: From January to August 2025, China's pig iron output was 579.07 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.1%; crude steel output was 671.81 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.8%; rebar output was 128.68 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.3%. In August, rebar output was 15.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.6% [38][43]. - Profit: The immediate profits of long - and short - process rebar steel mills declined. According to Mysteel research, the profitability rate of 247 sample steel mills decreased slowly, and the latest data was 58.01%, still at a high level in recent years. The long - process profit per ton of steel was 139 yuan, and the short - process profit per ton of steel at flat - rate electricity was - 60 yuan [46][47]. - Supply - Demand Deduction: The "Golden September" for steel was lackluster, and there are concerns about the "Silver October". It is expected that steel demand in October will hardly improve significantly. Steel mills may need to cut production to smoothly reduce inventory. Once the hot metal output declines, the supply - demand of raw materials will turn loose [50][52]. 03 Strategy: Prices Weak First and Then Strong, Wait for Opportunities to Go Long - Futures Valuation: As prices declined at the end of September, rebar futures prices were lower than the valley - rate electricity cost of electric arc furnaces and the long - process cost, with a relatively low static valuation [54]. - Strategy: In September, black prices showed a reverse N - shaped trend and closed down month - on - month. In October, steel demand is expected to be difficult to improve significantly. Steel mills may need to cut production to reduce inventory. Once the hot metal output declines, the supply - demand of raw materials will turn loose. Due to low valuation, the decline space of finished products is limited, while raw materials have relatively high valuation and greater downward pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the support around the low point in early September. It is expected that prices will be weak first and then strong in October. Focus on opportunities to go long on rebar RB2601 around 3000, with signals including continuous inventory reduction of steel products or the emergence of macro - positive news [56][57].
螺纹：价格先弱后强等待做多机会
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-10-09 04:36