对二甲苯：中期仍偏弱， PTA：中期仍偏弱， MEG：1-5 月差反套

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - PX and PTA are rated as weak in the medium term; MEG is recommended for a 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage [1] Group 2: Core Views - After the holiday, PX is expected to make up for the decline and operate weakly; MEG is expected to open with a decline and enter a pattern of inventory accumulation at ports; PTA is expected to open with a slight decline, and attention should be paid to the implementation of device maintenance [16][17] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - For futures, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC on the previous day were 6570, 4594, 4207, 6276, and 479.7 respectively, with corresponding price drops of -100, -58, -17, -60, and -12.9, and declines of -1.50%, -1.25%, -0.40%, -0.95%, and -2.62% [2] - For spot goods, the previous day's prices of PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 803.83 dollars/ton, 4545 yuan/ton, 4275 yuan/ton, 585.25 dollars/ton, and 67.09 dollars/barrel respectively [2] - For spot processing fees, the previous day's PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 208.75 dollars/ton, 210.35 yuan/ton, 255.45 yuan/ton, 115.28 yuan/ton, and - 6.01 dollars/ton respectively [2] Market Dynamics - Japan's Idemitsu Kosan shut down two 200,000 - ton/year PX production lines at its Chita plant from mid - September to mid - December, while other production lines in other regions of Japan are operating normally [2][3] - On October 7, Platts' assessments of Asian paraxylene CFR Unv1/China and FOB Korea were $803.83/mt and $782.83/mt respectively, both up $2.50/mt day over day [5] - On October 7, crude oil futures were little changed in Asian afternoon trading after two consecutive sessions of higher settlements, and reports of a drone strike on Russia's Kirishi oil refinery supported prices [6][7] - As of the week ended October 3, US crude oil stocks likely increased by 2.84 million barrels to around 419.4 million barrels, 4.7% below the five - year average [8][9] Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are 0, 0, and - 1 respectively [15] Views and Suggestions - During the holiday, affected by the cost - end crude oil price, PX's valuation fluctuated and rebounded after a decline. The trading was light during the holiday, and it is expected to make up for the decline on the first day after the holiday [16] - During the holiday, the Asian MEG CFR China transaction price dropped by 2 dollars/ton. After the holiday, it is expected to open with a decline, and the port enters a pattern of inventory accumulation [16] - During the holiday, the PTA FOB China price dropped from 608 dollars/ton to 606 dollars/ton. After the holiday, it is expected to open with a slight decline, and attention should be paid to the implementation of device maintenance [17]