2025国庆&中秋节后首日展望

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, different commodities are expected to have various market trends. For example, due to Sino - US economic and trade talks and US policy support expectations, the price center of US soybeans has slightly increased, and domestic soybean meal is expected to rebound. Gold and silver are expected to open higher and continue to rise. Copper prices are expected to move up in the long - term, while aluminum, alumina, etc. also have different trends based on their fundamentals [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Agricultural Products - Sugar: In Brazil, sugar exports in September decreased by 16% year - on - year, and the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region decreased by 3.68% year - on - year, with sugar production only down 0.08%. In India, the monsoon precipitation was 7.9% higher than the long - period average (LPA). In China, typhoons and floods affected sugar - producing areas. The domestic market is undervalued, with a bullish sentiment and a strong fluctuation [2]. - Cotton: Weak US cotton export demand and global cotton consumption demand will put pressure on ICE cotton, and international cotton prices are expected to drag down Zhengzhou cotton futures. Domestic new cotton listing pressure is still large, but as the futures price approaches 13,000, there may be some buying support. Cotton futures are expected to fluctuate weakly, and the decline may slow down [2]. - Corn: In North China and Northeast China, the new corn listing pressure increased during the holiday, and the prices of deep - processing enterprises in North China continued to decline. The port prices also decreased. The futures market is expected to be under pressure and run weakly [2]. - Soybeans and Soybean Meal: The USDA quarterly inventory report on September 30 was slightly bullish. Due to Sino - US economic and trade talks and US policy support expectations, the price center of US soybeans has slightly increased. Domestic soybean meal is expected to rebound after the holiday [2]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: ICE rapeseed futures first rose and then fell during the holiday. Rapeseed meal futures are expected to open slightly higher following soybean meal futures. In the medium - term, it is expected to follow soybean meal futures and maintain an oscillating trend. ZCE rapeseed oil futures are expected to have little fluctuation after the holiday. In the medium - term, it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, but the downward risk should be guarded against [2]. - Palm Oil: MPOA estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in September decreased by 2.35%. The overall supply of palm oil is still in a state of change. The price is expected to maintain an oscillating trend, and the market needs to pay attention to supply and demand changes and related policies [2]. Metals - Gold and Silver: During the holiday, the price of gold continued to rise, and silver also followed the upward trend. Gold and silver are expected to open higher after the holiday and continue to rise, with silver possibly outperforming gold [2]. - Copper: Due to the mudslide in the Indonesian Grasberg mine, copper supply is expected to be tight, and the long - term price center is expected to move up. However, factors such as the US government shutdown, Trump's tariff policy, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations will increase price fluctuations [2]. - Aluminum: LME aluminum rose 1.95% during the holiday. Shanghai aluminum is expected to open slightly higher on October 9. In the medium - term, the price, volatility, and smelting profit of aluminum are expected to continue to rise [2]. - Lead, Zinc, Tin, Nickel: Lead is expected to oscillate as the increase in recycled lead supply suppresses the price. Zinc has an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, and the export window may open. Tin prices rose significantly during the holiday, but the probability of continuous strengthening is not high. Nickel is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with increased volatility [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Refined Oil Products: OPEC + decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, in line with market expectations. The short - term oil price is expected to be stable, and the long - term supply pressure still exists. Fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and other refined oil products have different trends based on their supply and demand and external factors [2]. - Polyester and Related Products: PX is expected to make up for the decline and run weakly after the holiday. PTA and ethylene glycol are expected to open lower and decline. Short - fiber and yarn still face pressure, and the market needs to pay attention to the changes in supply and demand and the progress of device maintenance [2]. - Other Chemicals: Glass, soda ash, synthetic rubber, urea, etc. have different market trends based on their supply - demand relationships and cost factors. For example, glass has a multi - empty dispute between seasonal demand improvement and real - estate market pressure [2]. Others - Shipping Index: The 2510 contract of the shipping index is expected to run at a low level with limited fluctuations. The 2512 and 2602 contracts are expected to oscillate widely [2]. - Caustic Soda and PVC: Caustic soda has limited downward space in the short - term and is suppressed by the alumina production reduction expectation in the long - term. PVC still faces the pressure of high production and high inventory [2]. - Asphalt and LPG: Asphalt is expected to continue the weak trend in the short - term, and LPG is expected to run weakly with limited downward space [2]. - Stock Index Futures and Bond Futures: Stock index futures are expected to oscillate strongly, while bond futures are expected to remain weak [2].