格林大华期货早盘提示：尿素-20251009

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic urea start - up rate rebounded before the holiday. The agricultural sector is still in the off - season, and industrial demand is rising slowly. Upstream factories continued to accumulate inventory, and factory orders during the holiday were average. With the new round of bidding announced by India's RCF, the urea price is oscillating weakly, with a reference range of 1620 - 1720 yuan/ton. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see for now [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On September 30, the price of the urea main contract 2601 rose 13 yuan to 1670 yuan/ton, while the spot price in the central China's mainstream area dropped 20 yuan to 1590 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions decreased by 7588 lots to 184,100 lots, and short positions decreased by 7400 lots to 226,600 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - Supply: The daily urea production in the industry is 199,400 tons, 1000 tons less than the previous working day. The current start - up rate is 85.2%, 0.08% higher than 85.13% of the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.2182 million tons, an increase of 52,900 tons or 4.54% from last week. The sample inventory at urea ports is 496,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from the previous period [1] - Demand: The start - up rate of compound fertilizers is 35.2%, a decrease of 3.3% from the previous period, and the start - up rate of melamine is 56.7%, an increase of 1.4% from the previous period [1] - Tendering: India's RCF announced a urea import tender, with the bid closing on October 15, offer validity until October 30, and the latest shipping date on December 10 [1] - Economic Outlook: The OECD released a mid - term economic outlook report on the 23rd, predicting that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 3.2%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the forecast in June this year, and will slow down to 2.9% in 2026, the same as the June forecast [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Before the holiday, the domestic urea start - up rate rebounded. The agricultural sector is in the off - season, and industrial demand is rising slowly. Upstream factories continued to accumulate inventory, and factory orders during the holiday were average. With the new round of bidding announced by India's RCF, the urea price is oscillating weakly [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see for now [1]