弘业期货：十一假期综述宏观有色板块

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market trends of various sectors during the National Day holiday in 2025, including macro - colored, energy and chemical, agricultural products, and black sectors. Most sectors show a complex situation of supply - demand imbalance, with some facing supply pressure and others having weak demand. Market trends are affected by factors such as policies, international macro - situations, and seasonal characteristics, and most sectors are expected to show short - term oscillatory trends [2][8][21]. Summary by Sector Macro - Colored Sector - Stock Index: A - share market showed strong growth before the holiday, up 6.7%, hitting a high since 1987. Policies are expected to attract incremental funds [2]. - Copper: International macro - situation fluctuates greatly due to the US government debt issue and political changes in other countries. Gold, silver, copper, and aluminum prices rise, while there are no major domestic changes [2]. - Zinc: Domestic demand in the peak season is lower than expected, and the supply pressure is still large. Although LME zinc rebounds during the holiday, SHFE zinc is under pressure at high levels [3]. - Lead: LME lead fluctuates widely during the holiday. Domestic lead supply pressure increases, and demand in the peak season is not good, with a weak oscillatory trend expected [4]. - Tin: LME tin rises during the holiday. Supply is tight due to slow mine resumption in Myanmar and disruptions in Indonesia. The tight supply pattern is expected to continue until mid - month [5]. - Gold and Silver: Precious metals rise during the holiday, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts and international macro - uncertainties. However, gold is in an overbought state [6]. Energy and Chemical Sector - PTA: Oil prices fall and then rebound during the holiday. PTA has low processing fees, weak cost support, and insufficient downstream demand, expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - MEG: There are many changes in domestic and overseas devices. Supply pressure is large, and cost drive is poor, with prices expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - Short - fiber and Bottle - chip: Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are expected to oscillate weakly following raw materials, with limited processing fee improvement space [8][9]. - Urea: The market is weak during the holiday. Supply remains high, demand is weak, and the market is expected to be under pressure [10]. - Paper Pulp: The market is stable during the holiday. Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The market is expected to be under pressure in the short term [11]. - PVC: There is a gap between policy expectations and fundamentals. Supply pressure is not relieved, demand is weak, and it is difficult to find positive factors [12]. - Glass: The market shows a trend of rising first and then falling. Supply may tighten, but demand is insufficient after the holiday, and fundamental positives are not sustainable [12][13]. - Soda Ash: Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is under pressure. The price lacks upward momentum in the long term [14]. - Caustic Soda: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and prices are under pressure, but there is some support from alumina's demand expectations [15]. - Rubber: Typhoon may reduce supply, but terminal demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [15]. - PX: Supply increases, demand is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on downstream demand and profit changes [16][17]. - Pure Benzene: Prices fall before the holiday. Downstream demand is not as expected, and there is an over - supply expectation [18]. - Styrene: Prices fall before the holiday. The market is in a wide - balance state with a tendency to accumulate inventory, and the weak situation is difficult to change after the holiday [19]. Agricultural Products Sector - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: US cotton prices fall during the holiday. Domestic cotton purchase is stable, but demand is weak. Cotton prices are expected to have limited downward space after the holiday [21][22]. - Sugar: US raw sugar oscillates during the holiday. Production in some regions may increase, and Zhengzhou sugar may rebound but is under pressure [23]. - Soybeans and Soybean Meal: US soybeans rebound during the holiday. Domestic supply is sufficient, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly [24]. - Soybean Oil: US soybean harvest begins. Domestic production and demand are both weak, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [25]. - Palm Oil: Malaysian palm oil may enter the production - reduction season early. Supply and demand are both affected, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. - Rapeseed Products: Canadian rapeseed imports decrease, and domestic rapeseed oil production increases with inventory reduction, expected to oscillate [26]. - Corn and Starch: US corn oscillates slightly. Domestic supply may be affected by weather, and demand is strong. Corn prices may first fall and then rise [27]. - Hogs: Pig prices are low, and the breeding loss expands. The market is expected to oscillate weakly [28]. - Eggs: Egg prices are stable during the holiday. High存栏 may lead to price pressure after the holiday [28]. - Logs: Log prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to seasonal factors, but downstream demand is weak [29]. Black Sector - Steel: Steel mills' profitability decreases, but production and demand show different trends. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [31]. - Iron Ore: The market shows a small increase. Supply is stable, and demand has support, focusing on supply and demand changes [31]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply and demand change little, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [31]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The market is weak and stable during the holiday. Supply and demand are both stable, and the market is expected to oscillate after the holiday [31]. - Polysilicon: Supply exceeds expectations, demand may decrease, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [33]. - Ferroalloys: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are weak and stable. They are expected to oscillate within a range after the holiday [33].