美国政府停摆豆类延续节前交易逻辑

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Soybeans: US soybean exports may continue to decline due to the impact of the Chinese market. The US government shutdown has increased market uncertainty, and the rapid progress of soybean harvesting has intensified supply pressure. Short - term US soybean futures prices remain in the same oscillation range. The domestic soybean supply is temporarily stable, and after the National Day holiday, attention should be paid to South American weather, Sino - US relations, domestic downstream inventory consumption, and restocking [3][47]. - Soybean Meal: The domestic supply pressure has not been resolved, and the negative basis of soybean meal has not been repaired. The two key variables are the shipping speed of Brazilian soybeans and the progress of Sino - US agricultural trade consultations. The short - term divergence between domestic and foreign soybean futures prices persists, and the mid - to long - term linkage may be restored if trade relations improve [4][49]. - Rapeseed Meal: Canadian rapeseed harvesting has increased supply pressure, and ICE rapeseed prices are under pressure. The mid - term core variable is the progress of trade negotiations. The short - term rapeseed meal futures prices may oscillate weakly, and after the National Day holiday, attention should be paid to domestic arrivals and inventory changes [6][49]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1 Market Review 1.1 Soybean Spot Prices Remain Stable - This week, the spot price of imported second - class soybeans in Zhangjiagang was 3,940 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, and the spot price of domestic third - class soybeans in Nenjiang, Heilongjiang was 3,820 yuan/ton, also unchanged [10]. 1.2 Bean Futures Prices Oscillate Weakly - In the 40th week of 2025, bean futures prices oscillated weakly. As the National Day holiday approached, the trading volume and open interest of both bean one and bean two significantly decreased [12]. 2 Sino - US Meeting: Soybeans Become an Important Issue; South American Soybean Exports Accelerate 2.1 US Government Shutdown, USDA Reports Suspended; Sino - US Meeting: Soybeans Become an Important Issue - S&P Global Commodity Insights predicts that the average yield of US soybeans in 2025 will be 53.0 bushels per acre, with a production of 4.261 billion bushels. The US government shutdown has led to the suspension of USDA and CFTC reports. Trump announced a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in four weeks, with soybeans as a core issue. However, it is difficult to change the situation of US farmers in the short term [23][24]. 2.2 Brazilian Soybean Sowing Accelerates; New - Season Yield Forecast Remains at a Record High - As of October 4, 2025, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans was 8.2%. The Brazilian National Supply Company predicts a 3.6% increase in soybean production to 177.67 million tons. StoneX forecasts a production of 178.6 million tons. The Rosario Grain Exchange raised the forecast of Argentine soybean production in the 2024/25 season to 49.5 million tons [25][26]. 2.3 South American Soybean Exports Accelerate; US Soybean Exports to China Remain Unimproved - In September, Brazilian soybean exports increased significantly compared to the same period last year. ANEC expects Brazilian soybean exports to reach a record 110 million tons this year. Argentina's soybean exports also increased, and during the tax - exemption period, a large amount of soybeans were registered for export to China. US soybean export inspection volume increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, and there were no exports to China last week [27][28][29]. 2.4 Soybean Arrival Pressure Persists; Oil Mills' Soybean Meal Inventory Pressure Remains - Tables show the cost and crushing profit of imported soybeans from the US West Coast, US Gulf Coast, Brazil, and Argentina. The arrival pressure of soybeans and the inventory pressure of soybean meal in oil mills still exist [31][37][40]. 3 Conclusion - US Soybeans: The USDA quarterly inventory report shows that the inventory as of September 1 was 316 million bushels, slightly lower than expected. Exports may continue to decline, and the government shutdown has increased uncertainty. The short - term futures price oscillation range remains unchanged [45]. - Bean Two: The domestic soybean supply is temporarily stable, and after the National Day holiday, attention should be paid to South American weather, Sino - US relations, domestic downstream inventory consumption, and restocking [47]. - Bean One: During the National Day, the harvest of new soybeans in Northeast China accelerated, increasing supply pressure and suppressing prices. The protein content of new soybeans is lower this year, and downstream procurement is cautious. Short - term prices may oscillate weakly [48]. - Soybean Meal: The domestic supply pressure has not been resolved, and the negative basis has not been repaired. The two key variables are the shipping speed of Brazilian soybeans and the progress of Sino - US agricultural trade consultations. The short - term divergence between domestic and foreign soybean futures prices persists [49]. - Rapeseed Meal: Canadian rapeseed harvesting has increased supply pressure, and ICE rapeseed prices are under pressure. The mid - term core variable is the progress of trade negotiations. Short - term futures prices may oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to domestic arrivals and inventory changes [49].